Lululemon 又暴跌？利润崩太快，估值杀太慢！

Core Viewpoint - Lululemon's Q1 performance indicates a slowdown in growth, with a significant drop in net profit margin to 13.3%, the lowest in three years, raising concerns about the company's growth trajectory and valuation [2][5][7]. Financial Performance - Lululemon reported Q1 revenue of $2.37 billion, a 7.3% year-over-year increase, aligning with market expectations but reflecting low growth [2][6]. - The gross profit margin improved to 58.3%, up 0.6% year-over-year, despite increased marketing expenses due to intensified competition [5][6]. - The company adjusted its full-year operating margin guidance downwards, now expecting a decline of 160 basis points, influenced by new tariffs affecting supply chain costs [5][7]. Market Segmentation - North America, Lululemon's primary market, saw a 3.2% year-over-year growth, with a decline in sales volume being the main factor for the slowdown [2][3]. - The Chinese market grew by 19%, but this is a significant drop from previous years' growth rates above 35%, attributed to increased competition and lower consumer spending in second-tier cities [2][3]. - Other international markets experienced an 18.5% growth, but this also indicates a slowdown, suggesting broader economic pressures [3]. Product Performance - Women's apparel generated $1.54 billion in revenue, growing 7%, while men's apparel, which has been a focus for growth, only increased by 8%, indicating underperformance [4][6]. - The company is shifting focus to upgrading existing stores rather than aggressively opening new ones, with only three new stores added in Q1, against a planned 40-45 for the year [4][6]. Consumer Behavior - The reduction in promotional activities led to a rise in average transaction value, but increased marketing expenses have impacted overall profitability [5][6]. - The introduction of high-ticket items like the Daydrift high-waisted pants has been positively received, contributing to the improved gross margin [5]. Valuation Concerns - Following the earnings report, Lululemon's stock dropped 22%, reflecting market concerns over its growth potential and valuation, which remains high at approximately 17 times projected earnings for 2025 [7][9]. - The company’s historical success in the yoga apparel market is under scrutiny as it seeks new growth avenues through category expansion and international market penetration [8][9].