虎嗅APP·2025-06-08 10:13Core Viewpoint - The motorcycle industry, despite being overshadowed by the automotive and aviation sectors, has emerged as a significant market with a scale of approximately 1 trillion yuan and an annual demand of around 52 million units, showcasing a successful recovery from deflationary pressures and becoming a positive case of "anti-involution" in the context of global manufacturing [5][11][17]. Group 1: Market Size and Dynamics - The global motorcycle market is larger than that of heavy trucks, buses, and rail transit, with a market size of about 1 trillion yuan, indicating substantial investment potential [5][12]. - China is the largest motorcycle producer, with annual domestic sales exceeding 5 million units and exports surpassing 10 million units, accounting for over 30% of the global market share [11][12]. - The motorcycle industry has historically faced challenges such as low-end positioning and declining domestic demand, but recent trends show a shift towards high-displacement motorcycles, with exports of over 35,900 units of 250cc and above motorcycles, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 38.6% over five years [17][21]. Group 2: New Consumer Trends - The rise of "new consumption" emphasizes self-satisfaction and experiential purchases, with high-displacement motorcycles becoming symbols of adventure and social interaction among younger consumers [19][21]. - The domestic market for high-displacement motorcycles has seen a significant increase in penetration from 1.5% to 7.5% between 2019 and 2024, driven by changing consumer preferences and outdoor activities [24][25]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Domestic brands, particularly the "Big Three" (Chunfeng, Longxin, and Qianjiang), have captured approximately 60% of the high-displacement motorcycle market, with projected sales of 150,000 to 180,000 units each in 2024 [25][26]. - The competitive dynamics have shifted, with traditional foreign brands losing market share in the high-displacement segment, while domestic brands are gaining traction [32]. Group 4: Export Opportunities and Challenges - The export market for high-displacement motorcycles is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 50,000 units by 2025, indicating a strong demand for Chinese brands abroad [27][28]. - However, challenges remain in terms of production capacity, quality control, and brand recognition, particularly in comparison to established players like Honda, which dominates the global market [33][36][37].