能源价格是主要拖累——5月物价数据解读【陈兴团队•财通宏观】

Core Insights - The core CPI shows improvement year-on-year, while the PPI continues to expand its year-on-year decline. In May, the CPI decreased month-on-month, but the core CPI's year-on-year growth rate increased. The PPI's month-on-month decline remained stable, with a year-on-year decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points, both influenced by fluctuations in international energy prices [1][3]. CPI Analysis - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, consistent with the previous month. The core CPI recorded a year-on-year growth of 0.6%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from last month. The CPI's year-on-year growth was affected by a tail effect contributing approximately -0.2 percentage points, while new price changes contributed about 0.1 percentage points [5][11]. - Food prices fell by 0.4% year-on-year, with fresh fruits, pork, and seafood prices rising, collectively impacting the CPI by 0.21 percentage points. Conversely, fresh vegetables and egg prices decreased, affecting the CPI by -0.19 percentage points. Non-food prices remained stable compared to last month [5][8]. - Energy prices decreased by 6.1% year-on-year, with a decline of 1.7% month-on-month, impacting the CPI's year-on-year decline by approximately 0.47 percentage points. However, some sectors showed positive price changes, such as gold jewelry and household textiles, which increased by 40.1% and 1.9%, respectively [5][8]. PPI Analysis - The PPI's year-on-year decline recorded -3.3% in May, with the decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. The tail effect contributed approximately -1.8 percentage points, while new price changes contributed about -1.5 percentage points. The production materials price decreased by -4.0% year-on-year, while the living materials price decreased by -1.4% [11][13]. - Major industries such as coal mining (-18.2%), oil and gas extraction (-17.3%), and kerosene processing (-14.7%) experienced significant price declines. However, prices in sectors like washing machine manufacturing and automobile manufacturing saw a reduction in their decline rates compared to last month [11][13]. - The PPI's month-on-month decline remained at 0.4%, with production materials prices decreasing by 0.6%. The oil and gas extraction industry saw a price drop of 5.6%, while refined petroleum products and chemical industries also experienced declines [13].