【招银研究|海外宏观】长短逻辑交织，失业缓步上行——美国非农就业数据点评（2025年5月）

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market continues to show signs of normalization, with the unemployment rate gradually rising, influenced by both long-term and short-term factors. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current stance on interest rates, with limited room for rate cuts in the near future [1][14]. Group 1: Employment Data - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding market expectations of 126,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, while the labor force participation rate fell to 62.4% [1][17]. - The average hourly wage growth year-on-year was 3.9%, surpassing the expected 3.7% [1][17]. Group 2: Unemployment Rate Trends - The unemployment rate has been gradually increasing, rising by 5 basis points to 4.24% in May, maintaining around 4.2% for the past quarter [2][3]. - The three-month moving average of job vacancies was recorded at 4.4%, which is 0.3 percentage points lower than the mid-2024 average [6]. Group 3: Short-term Influences - Consumer sentiment has improved, with the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index showing signs of recovery, indicating that the impact of tariffs on consumer sentiment is easing [8][9]. - The financial situation of U.S. households has improved, supported by fiscal expansion, leading to a decrease in employment willingness and an increase in hiring demand [8][10]. Group 4: Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is experiencing tightening supply and demand dynamics, with a slight rebound in the job vacancy ratio to 1.03 in April. The average hourly wage growth increased by 0.2 percentage points to 0.4% in May [14]. - The forecast suggests that the unemployment rate may continue to rise gradually, expected to fluctuate between 4.2% and 4.6% throughout the year [14]. Group 5: Market Reactions - Following the stronger-than-expected employment data, U.S. Treasury yields across all maturities rose significantly, with the 2-year yield increasing by 11.6 basis points to 4.04% [15]. - The U.S. dollar index saw a slight increase of 0.45% to 99.19, while major U.S. stock indices all posted gains, with the S&P 500 rising by 1.03% [15]. Group 6: Investment Strategy - The company has adjusted its long-term positioning for 10-year Treasuries to 4.6% and for 5-year Treasuries to 4.15%, maintaining a long-term bearish outlook on the dollar [16]. - The expectation is that any technical rebounds in the dollar will present selling opportunities, as the long-term downtrend in the dollar is anticipated to continue [16].