特朗普还能折腾出美股的新高吗？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of recent geopolitical events, particularly involving Trump and the U.S.-China trade negotiations, on the U.S. stock market and outlines potential investment strategies moving forward [1][3]. Group 1: U.S.-China Relations and Market Impact - The U.S. stock market has seen stagnant returns since 2025, primarily due to the unrealistic valuations set before Trump's presidency being adjusted through EPS [3]. - The ongoing tariff negotiations have shifted from aggressive stances to more pragmatic approaches, with tariffs becoming less impactful on market dynamics [4]. - The recent U.S.-China economic discussions in the UK may provide short-term market boosts, especially regarding the potential removal of the 20% tariff on fentanyl [4][5]. Group 2: Domestic Economic Policies and Fiscal Challenges - Trump's domestic reforms have faced significant challenges, with the failure to effectively alter the balance of power within the U.S. government being a notable issue [5][6]. - The "Beautiful America" plan is expected to pass, but its implementation raises questions about fiscal requirements and potential impacts on capital markets [6]. - The U.S. Treasury's TGA account has seen a decline, indicating an urgent need for fiscal financing as it dropped below $400 billion, far from the necessary $800 billion baseline [7][8]. Group 3: Debt Ceiling and Market Reactions - The debt ceiling issue is projected to resurface in 2025, with critical deadlines approaching in July and August, which could lead to significant market volatility [10]. - Historical patterns suggest that budget adjustment bills typically involve raising the debt ceiling, which could lead to increased bond yields and market reactions [10][12]. - The current economic data presents a mixed picture, with soft indicators suggesting a recession while hard data remains robust, complicating the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [16]. Group 4: Investment Strategy and Portfolio Performance - The article suggests that the U.S. stock market may experience a correction following a period of bond issuance, particularly if the debt ceiling is raised without a corresponding interest rate cut [20]. - The Alpha Dolphin virtual portfolio has achieved an absolute return of 88% since its inception, outperforming the MSCI China index by the same margin [21]. - Recent stock performance in the portfolio has been influenced by the resumption of U.S.-China trade talks and the popularity of certain consumer brands, such as Pop Mart [23]. Group 5: Individual Stock Contributions - Pop Mart's stock rose by 11.1% due to strong product cycles and improved supply chain capabilities [24]. - TSMC's stock increased by 6.1%, maintaining a growth outlook despite tariff uncertainties [24]. - Tesla's stock saw a significant decline of 14.8% amid concerns over regulatory impacts from the ongoing conflict between Musk and Trump [24]. Group 6: Asset Allocation - The Alpha Dolphin portfolio is diversified, with a 52:48 ratio between equity assets and defensive assets like gold and U.S. Treasuries [25].