年中展望 | 星火燎原（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1 - The economic transformation has entered a "new stage" since 2022, characterized by a downward trend in the contribution of traditional sectors like real estate to the economy, leading to a divergence in economic indicators and a "two extremes" situation in industries [2][8][25] - The pressure in this new stage is increasingly focused on terminal demand, resulting in a weaker CPI while PPI remains under pressure, with overcapacity shifting towards downstream sectors [2][14] - The traditional policy framework's effectiveness is declining, necessitating a comprehensive "policy innovation" to adapt to the new economic landscape, which began in late September 2024 [2][36] Group 2 - The external shocks, particularly during the tariff phases, have accelerated domestic industrial upgrades, with significant shifts observed in industries like automotive and electronics [3][66] - During the Tariff 1.0 phase, industries transitioned from "import assembly" to self-sufficiency in core components, leading to a decrease in low-value-added exports and an increase in high-value-added exports [3][66][77] - Tariff 2.0 has primarily impacted low-value-added consumer goods, while high-value-added sectors have shown resilience, indicating that the tariff impacts align with the direction of industrial transformation [3][99][107] Group 3 - The new policy framework emphasizes high-quality development, focusing on high-level openness, "dual circulation," and sustainable growth, with a shift from investment-driven to people-centered approaches [4][122] - The "anti-involution" initiative is seen as a structural reform on the supply side, gaining increasing attention from both government and industry since late 2024 [4][36] - The service sector is identified as a critical area for absorbing structural employment pressures during the transformation process, with significant support needed to address supply shortages [5][54]