强化学习之父：LLM主导只是暂时，扩展计算才是正解

Core Viewpoint - The dominance of large language models (LLMs) is temporary, and they will not remain at the forefront of technology in the next five to ten years [1][2]. Group 1: Current State of AI - Richard Sutton, a Turing Award winner and father of reinforcement learning, emphasizes that current AI models like ChatGPT rely on analyzing vast amounts of human-generated data [9]. - He argues that pursuing human-like thinking will only achieve "human-level" performance, and in fields like mathematics and science, the knowledge within human data is nearing its limits, making further innovation through mere imitation difficult [10][11]. Group 2: Future of AI Learning - Sutton believes AI must transition from relying on human data to acquiring "experience data" through first-person interactions with the world [13][14]. - He illustrates this with the example of AlphaGo's unconventional move against Lee Sedol, showcasing AI's potential for innovative thinking through experiential learning [14]. - The future of AI will belong to an "experience era," where agents learn from interactions, which exceeds the capabilities of current LLMs [18]. Group 3: Reinforcement Learning and Computational Power - Sutton states that the core path to the future of AI lies in reinforcement learning, which is centered around experiential learning [19]. - To fully leverage reinforcement learning, deep learning algorithms with continuous learning capabilities are essential [20]. - The support of large-scale computational power is crucial for expanding AI capabilities and meeting increasing performance demands [22][23]. Group 4: Decentralized Cooperation Among Agents - Sutton discusses the potential for decentralized cooperation among agents with different goals, suggesting that they can achieve mutual benefits through interaction [24]. - He critiques the calls for centralized control of AI, attributing such views to fear of the unknown, and advocates for embracing the diversity of individual goals to establish a cooperative order [26]. Group 5: The Design Era - Sutton introduces the concept of a "design era," where machines become increasingly life-like, yet emphasizes the fundamental differences between life and technology [29]. - He posits that the goal of developing AI is to achieve the ultimate design—creating agents capable of self-design, with humans acting as catalysts and creators in this process [29]. Group 6: Community Reactions - Sutton's statements have sparked intense discussions within the community, with supporters arguing that breakthroughs often arise from the unknown and that LLMs may be approaching their limits [30][31].