中金2025下半年展望 | 全球市场：共识化的“去美元”

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of "reciprocal tariffs" on global markets, leading to a growing consensus on "de-dollarization" and the potential for U.S. assets to outperform in the second half of 2025 [1][17][20] - The relative strength of the credit cycles in the U.S. and China is highlighted, indicating a shift from expansion to contraction, and then to rebalancing in the second half of 2025 [2][22][24] - Key factors influencing the credit cycles include tariffs, fiscal policy, and AI, which are essential for analyzing the economic outlook for both countries [3][18][19] Group 2 - In the U.S., the credit cycle may restart, but the third quarter is expected to remain chaotic, providing buying opportunities amid volatility [3][4][5] - The article notes that the U.S. economy has a solid foundation, with inflation pressures potentially easing, allowing for interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter [5][6][30] - Tax cuts are expected to support consumer spending and stimulate corporate investment, with the potential for a significant increase in capital expenditures [6][35][37] Group 3 - In contrast, China's credit cycle is still in a contraction phase, primarily due to high costs exceeding return expectations, which limits the willingness of the private sector to leverage [8][10] - The article emphasizes the need for fiscal stimulus and emerging growth points to improve return expectations in China, as current fiscal policies are seen as insufficient [9][10][12] - The potential for structural opportunities in the Chinese market is noted, with a focus on quality assets amid limited overall market direction [10][11][12] Group 4 - The article suggests that the U.S. market may not be as pessimistic as anticipated, with opportunities in U.S. assets, particularly in bonds and equities, as the market adjusts to tariff impacts [11][12][30] - For China, the focus remains on structural opportunities, with Hong Kong stocks expected to outperform A-shares, while caution is advised against excessive speculation [11][12][15] - The overall investment strategy should consider the potential for volatility in the third quarter, with a focus on quality assets and structural growth [10][11][12]