中金2025下半年展望 | 港股市场：资金盛与资产荒

Group 1 - The performance of the Hong Kong stock market in the first half of 2025 was notable, significantly outperforming A-shares and showing resilience despite the impact of "reciprocal tariffs" [1][10] - The market has faced challenges, including pulse-like rebounds and a concentration of performance in a few sectors, with only 35% of stocks outperforming the index since the beginning of the year [1][13] - The outlook for the second half of 2025 is uncertain, with the potential for the market to maintain resilience amidst tariff uncertainties and prevailing sentiments [1][14] Group 2 - The core issue facing the Chinese economy is the ongoing credit contraction in the private sector, driven by a mismatch between return expectations and costs, rather than a lack of liquidity or low interest rates [2][16] - As of April, China's M2 reached 325 trillion RMB, 2.4 times GDP, and household savings hit a record high of 145 trillion RMB, indicating ample liquidity [2][16] - The actual interest rate remains high relative to the natural rate, creating a situation where return expectations for residents and enterprises are lower than their financing costs [2][17] Group 3 - Solutions to the credit contraction include increasing return expectations and lowering financing costs, with a focus on external interventions such as fiscal policies or new growth points like AI technology [3][22] - The current credit cycle is not in a phase of significant deleveraging but is also not ready for substantial expansion, suggesting a period of stagnation in the second half of 2025 [4][27] - Key factors influencing the credit cycle include tariffs, fiscal policy, and AI developments, with the relative changes in these areas being crucial for future market direction [4][27] Group 4 - The market is characterized by excess liquidity and limited returns, leading to overall index fluctuations and structural opportunities [5][41] - Investors are seeking either stable returns or growth returns, with sectors like new consumption and technology showing significant improvements in return on equity (ROE) [6][42] - Historical patterns indicate that the current market conditions resemble previous periods of wide index fluctuations, providing opportunities for sector-focused investments [7][41] Group 5 - The outlook for corporate earnings in 2025 suggests a slight growth of 2% under a 30% tariff scenario, with overall earnings growth expected to be limited [8][45] - Valuation levels are constrained, with high dividend yields of 5-6% and a crowded new economy sector, indicating limited room for overall market recovery [8][48] - The inflow of southbound funds remains a significant driver for the Hong Kong market, with an estimated inflow of 200-300 billion HKD expected this year [9][9]