TSMC(US:TSM) 日经中文网·2025-06-10 08:08Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue experiencing a disparity in demand, with AI-related products leading the market while broader product demand may not recover until the second half of 2025 [1][6]. Group 1: Semiconductor Market Trends - The semiconductor market size for Q1 2023 was $167.6 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 19%, driven by high-demand chips for generative AI [5]. - TSMC's sales increased by 42% in Q1 2023, with high-performance computing (HPC) semiconductors making up 59% of total sales, up from 46% year-on-year [6]. - Demand for mature products, such as those used in smartphones and PCs, remains weak, with Samsung's semiconductor division only growing by 9% in Q1 2023, a significant slowdown from the previous quarter [7]. Group 2: NAND Flash Market Dynamics - Kioxia Holdings has begun to reduce NAND supply due to decreased demand, but expects NAND market conditions to improve starting in the second half of 2025 [9]. - Global NAND prices fell by 13% to 18% in Q1 2025 but are projected to rise by 3% to 8% in Q2 2025, indicating a potential recovery in demand [9]. - Smartphone manufacturers may increase demand for memory chips if the pace of price declines slows, aided by government subsidies in China to boost smartphone purchases [9]. Group 3: Automotive and Industrial Demand - Demand for automotive and industrial semiconductors is not expected to recover until after 2026, with companies like Renesas Electronics adjusting production timelines due to slowing EV growth [10][11]. - The average net profit for major automotive and industrial companies in Japan, the US, and Europe is projected to decrease by about 10% in 2025, but is expected to rebound by 31% in 2026 [12]. Group 4: Semiconductor Equipment and Supply Chain - Semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales in Japan grew by 18.2% year-on-year, driven by ongoing demand for AI-related semiconductors [16]. - However, investment in China has begun to slow, with companies previously rushing to invest in the Chinese market now seeing a decline in sales [16]. - The demand for electronic components, particularly those for AI data centers, remains strong, with companies like Murata Manufacturing expecting robust demand for multi-layer ceramic capacitors [17]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The expansion of AI applications is anticipated to drive demand for high-performance semiconductors in smartphones, PCs, and automotive sectors [18]. - Companies are focusing on improving quality and production efficiency to mitigate risks associated with potential declines in demand due to tariffs and other uncontrollable factors [18].