加速人民币国际化：破局美元信用危机的战略窗口｜政策与监管

Core Viewpoint - The current instability of the US dollar's credit foundation presents a historical opportunity for the internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB), as the traditional safe asset status of US Treasury bonds is being questioned due to the Federal Reserve's promotion of stablecoin issuance [1][2]. Group 1: Current Global Financial Landscape - China, as the world's largest trading nation and second-largest economy, contributes nearly 30% to global manufacturing output, yet the RMB's share in global payments remains around 4% [2]. - The RMB's share in cross-border trade settlements has increased from 18% in 2022 to 30% in Q1 2024, while its share in global official foreign exchange reserves is only about 2.4% [2][3]. - The mismatch between China's economic strength and the RMB's international status has created significant challenges for Chinese enterprises, particularly in terms of pricing and financial security [4]. Group 2: Challenges Faced by Chinese Enterprises - Chinese enterprises face three main pressures due to their reliance on US dollar settlements: increased exchange rate risks, financing constraints, and clearing obstacles [4]. - The RMB's internationalization is primarily driven by private enterprises, with Southeast Asia being a key battleground, but its use remains limited to trade settlements rather than capital and financial accounts [4][5]. Group 3: Structural Contradictions in RMB Internationalization - There are four main contradictions hindering RMB internationalization: the mismatch between economic strength and currency status, the dominance of trade settlements over capital account transactions, the separation of onshore market size from offshore pricing power, and the reliance on the US dollar system amidst a demand for "de-risking" [5][6]. Group 4: Strategic Recommendations for RMB Internationalization - To address these contradictions, a five-year action plan focusing on "institutional opening" is recommended, which includes expanding cross-border financial services, enhancing regional currency cooperation, and upgrading financial infrastructure [8][9]. - Specific strategies include increasing the issuance of Panda bonds, promoting RMB pricing in regional trade, and enhancing the resilience of the RMB payment system [9][10]. Group 5: Quantitative Goals and Policy Support - Clear quantitative goals for RMB internationalization by 2025-2030 include increasing its global payment share from 3.79% to over 6%, raising its share in global foreign exchange reserves from 2.4% to 5%, and expanding the offshore RMB liquidity pool from 1.5 trillion to 5 trillion [16]. - Multi-departmental collaboration is essential for policy support, focusing on macro-prudential management, optimizing the yield curve, and embedding RMB settlements in trade agreements [16][17].