【笔记20250610— CCTV-6：《纽约我爱你》VS《情况不妙》】

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of probability thinking in investment, suggesting that investors should prepare for potential losses before entering a position [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The central bank conducted a 198.6 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with 454.5 billion yuan maturing today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 255.9 billion yuan [1]. - The funding environment remains balanced and loose, with the DR001 rate around 1.36% and DR007 at approximately 1.51% [1]. - The bond market showed mixed movements, with the 10-year government bond yield opening at 1.655% and fluctuating throughout the day [3]. Group 2: Economic Events - The China-US economic and trade talks have moved from Geneva to London, focusing on rare earths and export controls [3]. - The stock market experienced a sharp decline in the afternoon, attributed to ongoing trade negotiations and a loose funding environment [2][3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - There are two prevailing sentiments among bond investors: the "lying flat" camp, which believes in buying due to low rates and weak data, and the "speculative" camp, which anticipates surprises from negotiations and prefers to sell [4]. - The afternoon stock market drop was humorously linked to the airing of a specific film on CCTV-6, suggesting a superstitious interpretation of market movements [5].