国泰海通｜宏观：出口：回归正常化——2025年5月贸易数据点评

Core Viewpoint - The decline in export growth in May 2025 is attributed to the peak and subsequent decline of tariff expectations, revealing the impact of tariffs on exports. However, exports still show resilience despite the expected drop in the export central tendency [1][5]. Overall Summary - In May 2025, China's export growth rate in USD terms was 4.8% (previously 8.1%), while import growth was -3.4% (previously -0.2%). Month-on-month, exports decreased by 0.2% compared to April, and imports fell by 3.0%, both below seasonal levels [2]. Trade Balance - The trade surplus slightly increased in May 2025 [3]. Export Structure - By country, the export growth rates to the US, ASEAN, and Latin America saw significant declines, recording -34.5%, 14.8%, and 2.3% respectively. In contrast, exports to other regions increased to 11.8% (previously 10.4%). In terms of product structure, agricultural products and labor-intensive goods saw a notable decline, while machinery and raw materials remained relatively stable. Notably, exports of integrated circuits and ships in the machinery sector continued to perform strongly, with a resurgence in automotive exports [4]. Divergent Interpretations of Export Data - Optimists argue that the strong performance in April (8.1%) despite high tariffs suggests a rebound in May following the tariff easing on May 14, predicting a significant export rebound in June. Conversely, pessimists believe that the resilience in April was due to preemptive exports before the tariff implementation, and the decline in May indicates a depletion of future orders. The article concludes that the decline in May's export growth is a result of the cooling of preemptive exports and the impact of tariffs, but previous preemptive and transshipment trade has not significantly depleted future orders. Looking ahead, short-term indicators suggest that June's export growth may be supported by the easing of tariffs, while a normalization of exports is expected, leading to a gradual decline in export momentum without a drastic drop [5].