大美丽法案：内容、影响及后续进展

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025," focusing on tax reform, spending cuts, increased spending, and raising the debt ceiling, highlighting the potential impacts on the U.S. economy and fiscal deficit [1][9]. Group 1: Key Issues - Tax Reform: The act extends and expands personal tax cuts from the 2017 tax reform, leading to an estimated increase in the primary deficit of approximately $3.8 trillion from 2025 to 2034 [2][10]. - Spending Cuts: The act proposes cuts in healthcare, education, food assistance, and energy, which are expected to reduce the primary deficit by about $1.95 trillion over the same period [2][17]. - Increased Spending: Additional spending in military defense and immigration is projected to increase the primary deficit by approximately $480 billion from 2025 to 2034 [2][18]. - Debt Ceiling: The act raises the statutory debt ceiling by $4 trillion to $40.1 trillion, addressing the current public debt situation [2][21]. Group 2: Impact on Deficit, Economic Growth, and Distribution Effects - Deficit Impact: The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the act will increase the primary deficit by about $2.3 trillion from 2025 to 2034, while other estimates range from $2.6 trillion to $2.8 trillion [4][26]. - Economic Growth: The act is expected to have a minimal impact on GDP growth, with estimates suggesting an increase of about 0.4% over the period from 2025 to 2034 [4][32]. - Distribution Effects: The act may exacerbate income inequality, as it is projected to benefit higher-income households more than lower-income ones, potentially widening the income gap [4][37][43]. Group 3: Future Developments - Legislative Process: The act requires agreement between the House and Senate to become law, facing internal divisions within the Republican Party that may complicate its passage [4][46]. - Key Dates: Important timelines include the desire for the act to be signed into law by July 4, the "X date" around August when the debt ceiling must be addressed, and the end of the fiscal year in September [4][47][49].