哈佛老徐：稳定币爆火，它到底有什么影响

Core Viewpoint - Stablecoins represent a significant innovation at the intersection of blockchain technology and traditional finance, with a market size of $250 billion projected by May 2025, highlighting their rapid development and potential to reshape payment systems [5][6]. Group 1: Comparison of Stablecoins and Traditional Payment Systems - Stablecoins utilize distributed ledger technology for peer-to-peer transactions, offering features such as programmability and faster transaction speeds, completing transactions in seconds compared to traditional systems that may take 1-3 business days [6][7]. - The cost structure of stablecoins is significantly lower, with transaction fees for USDT on the Solana chain as low as $0.0001, while bank wire transfers average 1‰ plus additional fees [7][8]. - Stablecoins operate 24/7 without the limitations of traditional banking hours, enhancing accessibility and efficiency in financial transactions [8]. Group 2: Risk Characteristics - Stablecoins face unique risks, including credit risk from issuer defaults, liquidity risk during redemption, operational risks from smart contract vulnerabilities, and legal risks from regulatory changes [10]. - Traditional payment systems also carry risks, such as credit risk from bank failures and operational risks from human errors [10]. Group 3: Regulatory Framework Differences - The U.S. is advancing a federal regulatory framework through the GENIUS Act, mandating that stablecoin issuers maintain reserves in cash or short-term U.S. Treasury securities, with monthly disclosures [11][20]. - In contrast, Hong Kong's Stablecoin Ordinance requires a minimum capital of HKD 25 million for stablecoin issuers and emphasizes a regulatory framework that allows for multi-currency stablecoins [11][24]. Group 4: Market Acceptance and Future Trends - Stablecoins are increasingly integrated into various applications, with 65% of stablecoin transaction volume attributed to crypto trading and projected B2B payments reaching 1.2 trillion RMB by 2024 [15][18]. - The market for stablecoins is expected to grow significantly, with optimistic estimates suggesting a market cap of $3-6 trillion by 2030, while conservative estimates predict a growth to over $500 billion by 2027 [17][18]. Group 5: Geopolitical Financial Implications - The U.S. aims to maintain the dollar's global reserve currency status through stablecoin regulation, while Hong Kong seeks to establish itself as a bridge for offshore RMB stablecoins, enhancing its role in international trade [23][33]. - The regulatory landscape is evolving, with the potential for stablecoins to impact cross-border payments significantly, as evidenced by a 320% increase in cross-border payment orders using stablecoins in the Middle East [13][36].