在特斯拉的 AI 战略里，一直存在两条并行的研发路线。简单说，有两波人在搞芯片、做 AI。 前言 在科技领域，很多决定既关乎战略眼光，也考验执行的魄力。最近，特斯拉和英伟达这两家科技巨头分别在各自领域做出了值得关注的动作：马斯克突然 裁掉了特斯拉"Dojo"团队，而英伟达在AI浪潮中依旧占据核心位置，但短期也可能面临波动。这两件事，看似不相关，却指向了一个共同的主题——在变 化的世界里，保持理性判断、善用杠杆，才有可能走得更远。 马斯克的理性与"Dojo"团队解散 最近，特斯拉传来一个引发热议的消息——Dojo 团队被解散。很多人第一反应是："特斯拉是不是遇到资金压力，被迫降成本？" 01 两个芯片团队的赛跑 Dojo 团队：专注于为特斯拉自动驾驶（FSD）训练打造超算系统；硬件团队（AI3、AI4、AI5...）：负责车载硬件的研发。大家熟悉的 HW3、HW4，都 是他们的成果。 HW3：早期版本，无法完全跑通 FSD。HW4：已经可以运行 FSD。HW5：传闻性能非常不错。 马斯克过去的策略很简单——让这两支队伍并行"赛跑"。这样做的好处是，一旦一方失败，另一方依然能保证项目推进；坏处是，成本高、资源分散 ...

本周全球资产表现整体向好，股市几乎全线飘红，不少板块和组合都交出了令人满意的答卷。更重要的是，一些提前布局的方向再次得到了验证，而在风 险控制方面，我们也保持了应有的谨慎。 一周行情复盘 新兴市场方面， 印度 是本周唯一的下跌者，但我们早在前期就完成了清仓，小实验也同步结束，成功避开了这波下跌； 越南 上涨 4.49% ，虽然有些踏 空，但当初评估风险后及时退出仍然是稳健的选择。 债券方面略显疲弱，本周下跌 0.09% ， 美国国债 跌幅更大（-0.74%）， 黄金 微跌 0.14% 。 省心债 A股 上涨 1.27% 红利指数 上涨 1.48% 港股 上涨 0.7% 美国 上涨 1.46% 德国 上涨 1.36% 日本 上涨 3.8% | | | 涨跌幅 | | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | A股 | 沪深300 | 1.27% | 中债新综合全价 | -0.09% | | 红利 | 中证红利 | 1.48% | 美国20年+国债 | -0.74% | | 港股 | 恒生指数 | 0.70% | 上海金 | -0.14% | | 美国 | 纳指100 | 1 ...

前言 过去几天，AI圈的头条几乎被GPT-5刷屏了。大家都在谈它的新功能、新突破。 （这个新页面真的是 五彩斑斓 在我看来，这个Genie 3比GPT-5更值得关注。 为什么？因为世界模型现在正处在一个"人无我有"的阶段：会做世界模型的公司少之又少，而且一旦突破，就可能重塑整个AI版图。 （还不知道 所有行业的生命周期，16字箴言的，可以去上一条公众号补课 为什么说GPT-5的潜力有限？ 我 之前分析过，大语言模型（LLM）基于Transformer架构的发展，已经逼近"天花板"。它的升级幅度在变小，而且它生成的依然是语言描述， 不是可以进入、探索、互动的环境。 （想了解 大语言模型LLM前世今生的可以去这条公众号补课 世界模型到底是什么？ 世界模型不是生成视频，而是生成一个可以探索、可以互动、而且逻辑一致的世界。跟视频的区别很大。 视频：你只能被动看，播放内容是固定的。世界：你能自由探索，走到哪、看到哪，都会动态生成相应的画面和细节，而且一切都符合物理常识。 举个例子：在Genie 3里，你可以生成一个树林的世界，然后走到树林里看树叶上的水珠，光影会随角度变化；你可以离开很久，再回来，环境依旧保持 之前的样 ...

Core Viewpoint - The release of GPT-5 marks a significant moment in the AI industry, indicating a shift from a transformative era of large language models to a more incremental improvement phase, suggesting that the Transformer architecture may be reaching its limits [6][56]. Performance Analysis - GPT-5 shows improvements in various core metrics, such as achieving a 94.6% accuracy in the AIME math competition without tools and 100% with tools, but the progress compared to previous models is less dramatic [9][12]. - In the HLE human ultimate exam, GPT-5 Pro achieved 42%, a notable increase from the previous model's 24.3% [16]. - For programming capabilities, GPT-5 scored 74.9% in the SWE Bench Verified test, slightly surpassing Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.1 [21][24]. - The cost of using GPT-5 is significantly lower than its competitors, with input costs at $1.25 per million tokens, indicating a potential price competition in the market [26][27]. Industry Trends - The release event for GPT-5 was more elaborate but lacked the excitement of earlier launches, reflecting a shift in how OpenAI presents its advancements [8][9]. - The AI industry is moving towards a phase where quality and user experience are prioritized alongside capability, indicating a maturation of the market [8][12]. - The potential saturation of training data and parameters suggests that the industry may soon face challenges in achieving further breakthroughs with current architectures [34][37]. Future Directions - Two potential future directions for AI development are algorithmic innovation, such as hierarchical reasoning models, and upgrading data types to include more complex modalities like video and sensor data [38][41]. - The industry is transitioning from a phase of "superior quality" to "lower prices," which could lead to a competitive environment where profit margins are squeezed [43]. Conclusion - The release of GPT-5 signifies both a peak and a potential turning point in the AI landscape, with future advancements likely requiring new architectures or data modalities to sustain growth [56].

前言 最近A股表现整体还不错，虽有调整，但总体态势仍较为积极。然而，从经济基本面来看，数据却呈现不太乐观的信号。制造业 PMI连续两个月低于50，房地产销售继续大幅下滑，显示经济复苏力度依然不足。面对这样的环境，我们需要更加谨慎和灵活 地调整资产配置，精准把握潜在机会。本文将结合近期多个行业与资产的表现，深入解析市场动态与投资策略。 目前市场震荡调整，避免追涨杀跌。板块轮动快， 八月操作难度加大，如果你还持有我们的盈米小帮投顾 组合（即：组合）， 请联系徐彬助理回复关键词 【组合群】 ；重要内容和提醒会在里面通知。 （没有助理好友的，长按识别二维码，就可以加上啦 直播速览 A股整体表现与经济数据 A股近期表现尚可，涨幅可观，但制造业PMI数据却持续低迷，7月份仅为49.3，连续第二个月低于50，显示制造业处于收缩状 态。官方非制造业PMI虽维持在50以上，但仅是勉强持平，整体经济缺乏明显复苏信号。房地产销售金额更是加速下跌，跌幅 进一步扩大，房地产市场依然疲软。 创新药行业的机会与风险 医保创新药定价政策趋于灵活，利好创新药企业，市场对这一利好消息已提前反应，股价早已大幅上涨。当前创新药估值偏 高，预期已经较 ...

前言 我一直都对人形机器人很感兴趣，一直想买个玩玩，但每次刷到那些网上的视频又总是不敢下单。 人形机器人，到底离我们还有多远？几乎每隔一段时间，都会有业内大佬和顶级机构集体唱衰，称"人形机器人五年内无法商业化落地"。但事实真的如此 吗？ 带着疑问，我专访了中国人形机器人领域头部公司——开普勒机器人的创始人兼CEO胡德波。这不仅仅是一场简单的行业访谈，更像一次"未来已来"的深 度交流。本篇文章，我将拆成9个关键问题，细细讲！ 采访实录速览 （顺便说下，如果有机器人厂商对自家产品充满信心，非常欢迎你们寄送样机，我也很乐意亲自体验、给大家分享 ，哈哈 这些料箱里可能装着快递信封、工件、零部件，规格有限，搬运流程相对固定。机器人在这种结构化工位里——从A点搬到B点，精准完成上下料。比如 汽车厂的冲压件上料与下料，就是过去完全由人工承担的枯燥、重复、甚至有安全风险的环节。 01 人形机器人 离大规模落地还有多远？ 和胡总的对谈一开始，我就抛出了这个尖锐问题："为什么外界普遍都说五年内没戏，而你们却说今年就是商用化元年？" 胡总给出的答案非常坦诚："其实，大家对'商用落地'的定义不太一样。很多人说的'五年十年'，讲的是' ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a structural market trend in July, characterized by strong stock performance and weak bond performance, leading to overall positive returns across various investment portfolios [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance Overview - In July, the A-share market rose by 3.54%, while the Hong Kong market increased by 2.91%. The U.S. market saw a moderate gain of 2.38%, and the German DAX and Japanese Nikkei 225 had lower increases of 0.65% and 1.44%, respectively. India was the weakest performer with a decline of 2.90% [4]. - The Vietnamese market experienced a significant rise of 9.19%, with timely profit-taking executed to avoid potential downturns [4]. - The bond market overall declined by 0.26%, with U.S. Treasuries dropping by 1.05%, while gold saw a slight increase of 0.49% [4]. Group 2: Portfolio Performance - The "省心债组合" (Comfortable Bond Portfolio) achieved a positive return of 0.02% amidst a generally declining bond market, indicating effective volatility control and timing strategies [7][8]. - The "睿定投全球版" (Smart Global Investment Portfolio) rose by 2.46% in July, showcasing strong performance in a competitive market environment [11][12]. - The "懒人均衡组合" (Lazy Balanced Portfolio) recorded a total increase of 8.05% in the first seven months of 2025, surpassing the previous year's total return of 7.87% [13][17]. - The "红利组合" (Dividend Portfolio) focused on high-dividend assets in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, achieving a monthly increase of 4.09% and a cumulative return of 7.23% for 2025 [21]. Group 3: Strategy and Future Outlook - The article emphasizes the importance of not chasing monthly profits but rather focusing on minimizing losses and achieving steady gains through diversified asset allocation [30]. - Investment strategies are tailored for different risk appetites, with specific portfolios designed for conservative and aggressive investors [44].

Group 1: Education - In the AI era, it is crucial to focus on experiential learning rather than traditional academic pressure for children, as many future job roles may not yet exist [6][7] - Parents are advised to cultivate foundational skills in children, such as curiosity, critical thinking, self-motivation, and learning ability, rather than merely accumulating knowledge [6][7] Group 2: Young Adults' Career Choices - Young adults should aim to be "unique" rather than just "better" than their peers, as the future will favor those who can solve problems in innovative ways [7] - The job market will increasingly reward specialization and differentiation over standardization, making niche expertise more valuable [7] Group 3: Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) - The realization of AGI is deemed very difficult and unlikely to occur in the near future, with AI expected to remain specialized rather than universal [8][9] - Concerns about AI replacing human jobs are mitigated by the understanding that AI will not achieve comprehensive superiority across all fields [8][9] Group 4: Medical Advancements - The primary bottleneck in drug development is clinical trials, not the discovery of new drugs, indicating that AI's role in speeding up medical breakthroughs may be limited [11][12] - The future of gene editing and brain-machine interfaces is expected to initially benefit the wealthy, but technology will eventually become more accessible to the general population [12][13] Group 5: Autonomous Driving and Robotics - Progress in autonomous driving and robotics is anticipated to be slower than public expectations, with significant uncertainty regarding timelines for widespread adoption [14][15] - Continuous observation of technological advancements is recommended rather than making premature investments [14][15] Group 6: China's AI Opportunities - China is positioned favorably in the AI landscape due to its vast data resources, high talent density, and robust infrastructure in fields like healthcare and genetic sequencing [18] - The only significant shortcoming identified is in chip technology, but this is viewed as a temporary issue that can be resolved over time [18] Group 7: Future Methodology - The emphasis is on adapting to future changes rather than attempting to predict them, with a focus on continuous observation and timely decision-making [19][25] - The ability to respond to rapid changes and maintain curiosity and learning agility is highlighted as essential for success in the evolving landscape [25]

Core Viewpoint - Figma's IPO on July 31, 2025, saw its stock price surge by 250%, reaching a market valuation of $67.6 billion, significantly surpassing its previous valuation of $20 billion during the failed acquisition by Adobe in 2023 [18][21][28]. Founders and Company Background - Figma was founded by Dylan Field and Evan Wallace in 2012, aiming to address the shortcomings of traditional design software through a cloud-based collaborative platform [6][14]. - Dylan Field's entrepreneurial journey began with a $100,000 scholarship from Peter Thiel, leading to the creation of Figma after recognizing the need for improved design tools [11][9]. - Evan Wallace contributed significantly to Figma's technical architecture, focusing on browser-based graphic rendering, which was crucial for the platform's functionality [12][17]. Development Milestones - Key milestones in Figma's development include its founding in 2012, the release of its first public beta in December 2015, and the official launch in 2016, which led to rapid user growth [14][15]. - By 2025, Figma had over 13 million monthly active users, with two-thirds being non-professional designers, indicating its broad market appeal [22][34]. Business Model and Financial Performance - Figma operates on a subscription-based model, with a significant portion of its revenue coming from enterprise clients, including major companies like Google and Microsoft [22][37]. - The company reported revenues of approximately $749 million in 2024, with a year-over-year growth of 48%, and a strong profit margin of 17.5% [34][40]. Product Innovation and Market Position - Figma has integrated AI technologies into its product offerings, enhancing user experience and maintaining a competitive edge in the design software market [23][42]. - The platform's collaborative features have redefined design workflows, making it a preferred choice over traditional tools like Adobe [17][39]. Market Environment and Investor Sentiment - Figma's IPO coincided with a rebound in the tech sector, driven by strong earnings from major companies and a growing interest in AI technologies [25][21]. - The innovative auction-like pricing mechanism for its IPO helped capture true market demand, contributing to its successful debut [25][33]. Future Outlook - Figma's leadership emphasizes the importance of continuous innovation and maintaining user value post-IPO, with plans to further explore AI integration in design tools [23][18]. - The company faces challenges such as increasing competition and the need to balance growth with profitability, but its strong market position and innovative capabilities provide a solid foundation for future success [33][42].

前言 读懂未来 把握红利 自打AI爆火之后，总有朋友来问我："老徐，我想了解未来AI的发展，想提前占位，该怎么做？" 每次遇到这样的问题，我其实都挺难直接给出答案。毕竟大家所在的行业 千差万别 ，职级、年龄也各不相同，真要"简单明了说清楚"还真不现实。所 以，我一直在找一本既不晦涩又讲得清楚明白的好书，能让大家都能看懂、用得上。 直到我读到《2049》，我心里就有一个声音：对，就是它！如果你想抓住未来的红利，这本书就是你绕不开的"水晶球"。 （非常可爱的凯文凯利 我们这一代人，无论是做企业、投资，还是普通的职场人、家长、学生，几乎都在被"未来"这个大词深深吸引：预判未来的能力，直接决定了你能不能提 前布局、抢占先机。这也是我这7年创业最深刻的体会。我们都渴望看到趋势的本质，都希望在风口到来之前提前站上舞台中央。《2049》这本书的意义 就在于此！ （如果你还没有看过，我真心推荐你看一看 作者介绍 凯文·凯利 全球著名的未来学家 早年生活与教育背景 凯文·凯利（Kevin Kelly）1952年4月28日出生于美国宾夕法尼亚州。 他的成长经历充满了冒险与探索精神。 1971年，他进入罗德岛大学学习，但仅一年 后 ...