想了解组合的朋友，欢迎联系助理咨询 一周行情复盘 整体偏平稳 从短期看，市场来回波动、节奏反复，很难每一步都踩准；但拉长周期看，全球配置的优势就在于，它并不依赖单一市场的判断，而是通过分散和节奏管 理，把不确定性慢慢熨平。 组合的收益，更多来自时间和纪律，而不是对某一次行情的精准预测。 如果你一直纠结"现在算不算好时点"，那大可不必。组合本身就是通过分批投入、长期执行来运转的，低点未必能等到，但风险已经在过程中被不断拆 解。真正拉开差距的，从来不是入场那一刻，而是能不能持续走完这一段路。 最近这段时间，组合的运行状态，其实再次印证了一件事：只要把结构搭对，过程一定不会完美，但方向往往是对的。 | | | 涨跌幅 | | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ａ服 | 沪深300 | 0.60% | 中债新综合全价 | 0.00% | | 红利 | 中证红利 | 0.79% | 美国20年+国债 | 0.79% | | 港股 | 恒生科技 | -0.79% | 上海金 | 0.79% | | 美国 | 纳指100 | 0.25% | | | | 德国 | 德国DAX | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent surge in the CSI Industrial Nonferrous Index is driven by improvements in supply-demand structure, changes in the global macro environment, and elevated national strategic priorities, indicating potential sustainability in this market trend [1][10] - The article emphasizes that nonferrous metals are a typical cyclical industry, with prices determined by supply and demand, and are closely tied to macroeconomic conditions and industrial investment [1][11] - The current rise in nonferrous metals is not only cyclical but also influenced by structural themes such as national strategic security, new technology cycles, economic recovery, and changes in global liquidity [1][10] Group 2 - China's strategic mineral resources face two significant issues: high dependence on foreign sources and lack of cost competitiveness in domestic resources [3][4] - The article outlines several national policies aimed at enhancing resource security and promoting high-quality development in the copper, aluminum, and gold industries, with specific targets for resource growth and production capacity [8][9] - Investment in the nonferrous mining sector is projected to reach 208.9 billion yuan in 2024, marking a ten-year high, with significant increases in fixed investment expected in the coming years [9] Group 3 - The article identifies two major drivers for the nonferrous market in 2025: the real demand for metals driven by AI and the increasing gold reserves held by central banks amid a trend towards de-dollarization [11][12] - Economic recovery in China is anticipated to boost demand for industrial nonferrous metals, while global supply constraints and domestic capacity controls are expected to keep supply tight [12][13] - The article highlights the importance of inventory depletion in supporting prices, with specific examples of lithium and aluminum inventory trends [14] Group 4 - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by a potential easing of monetary policy, with expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, which could enhance the attractiveness of nonferrous metals [15][16] - The article predicts a mid-term bull market for nonferrous metals driven by a combination of monetary easing, demand growth from emerging sectors, and supply-side constraints [18][20] - The industrial nonferrous index is favored for its clear focus on manufacturing and strong performance compared to broader indices, with significant historical returns and robust profitability metrics [21][25][27] Group 5 - Ordinary investors are advised to consider specific ETFs and mutual funds that focus on the industrial nonferrous sector, emphasizing a strategy of index-based and leading company investments [31][33]

新年将至，我也和很多投资者一样，已着手为2026 年做资产配置规划。 对于2026年的投资，我有一个很清晰的认知，明年的投资难度会远超今年。所以，我早早就做了资产拆分。何为资产拆 分？就是把我可投资的资产分散到不同的篮子里。那么，2026年承载金字塔底座的资产， 我更愿意把"安全垫"交给一种确 定性相对更高的资产类型——利率下行周期中的固收+策略。 理由并不是一句"稳健"可以概括，而是基于数据、市场结构与 投资逻辑的综合判断。 过去三年，市场给了我们一个清晰的现实：无论是权益市场还是债券市场， 都已不是处在"轻松赚钱"的阶段。 先看权益： 近年来全球股市几乎都呈现出"高波动、强分化"的结构特征：指数层面并不差，但赚钱却越来越依赖行业与赛道——没有 站在主线上，就是长期跑输。 展望 2026 年，这样的结构很可能进一步强化：大宗商品在 2025 年显著上涨，能源与资源价格传导到企业经营层面的再平 衡仍在进行；全球利率逐步向下但节奏并不线性，叠加地缘与政策博弈，权益更可能走出"结构性行情"，而不是广谱普 涨。 这意味着：想赚高收益，需要承担显著波动；对此，普通投资者更现实的需求，是有一揽子资产能为其托住底部。 再 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving landscape of AI and computing power, emphasizing that while Google's TPU has gained temporary advantages, NVIDIA's upcoming Blackwell architecture is expected to reclaim dominance in the AI model training space by 2026 [4][6][7]. Group 1: Google's TPU and NVIDIA's Blackwell - Google's TPU has recently outperformed competitors with its Gemini 3 model, leading to speculation about the end of NVIDIA's dominance [6]. - Gavin Baker argues that the advantages of Google's TPU are temporary, as NVIDIA's Blackwell architecture has not yet been fully deployed [6]. - The transition from NVIDIA's H200 to Blackwell represents a significant leap in performance, necessitating extensive infrastructure changes [6][7]. Group 2: Predictions for 2026 - The first quarter of 2026 is predicted to be a turning point in the AI landscape, with the potential emergence of leading models utilizing Blackwell technology [7][8]. - Key indicators to watch for include the performance of Grok5, advancements from OpenAI and Anthropic, and the widening gap between companies that adopt Blackwell technology and those that do not [8][10]. Group 3: AI Monetization - Contrary to the belief that AI is a high-cost, low-return investment, the first non-tech Fortune 500 company has begun to see quantifiable benefits from AI implementation [11][12]. - The case of CH Robinson illustrates how AI can enhance revenue by automating processes rather than merely reducing costs, shifting the focus from cost-cutting to revenue generation [12][16]. Group 4: Future of Computing Infrastructure - The article posits that future computing power centers should be established in space rather than on Earth, due to advantages in energy efficiency, cooling costs, and transmission speeds [18][19][21]. - Space-based computing centers can leverage constant solar energy, reduce cooling costs, and utilize faster transmission methods, making them a more optimal solution for future AI needs [19][21][23]. Group 5: Strategic Implications - Companies like Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI are positioned to create a synergistic ecosystem that enhances their competitive advantages in AI and computing [27]. - The article suggests that the next two decades will be defined by AI and computing advancements, with significant opportunities for those who can recognize and act on emerging trends [28][30].

Core Viewpoint - The dialogue between Andrew Ross Sorkin and Dario Amodei highlights contrasting perspectives on AI's future, with Sorkin expressing skepticism about a potential AI bubble, while Amodei emphasizes the tangible value and growth of AI in the industry [6][32]. Group 1: Andrew Ross Sorkin's Perspective - Sorkin views the current AI landscape as reminiscent of historical financial bubbles, suggesting that the rapid growth in AI investment and reliance on AI for GDP growth could lead to a similar collapse as seen in 1929 [33][39]. - He raises concerns about the sustainability of AI investments, questioning whether the returns justify the massive expenditures being made by companies like OpenAI [38][39]. - Sorkin's macro perspective indicates a cautious approach, focusing on the potential risks and uncertainties surrounding AI's economic impact [33][39]. Group 2: Dario Amodei's Perspective - Amodei presents a more optimistic view, citing significant revenue growth in the AI sector, with projections of annual revenues increasing from approximately $1 billion in 2023 to $80-100 billion by 2025 [34][35]. - He argues that the willingness of companies to invest substantial amounts in AI services is a direct indicator of its value, contrasting the skepticism of outsiders with the confidence of industry insiders [35][38]. - Amodei emphasizes the importance of safety and regulation in AI development, advocating for a balanced approach that ensures AI's growth does not outpace its governance [30][31]. Group 3: Industry Risks and Opportunities - Amodei warns that OpenAI could face significant financial challenges due to its aggressive investment strategy, highlighting the inherent risks in the AI industry where companies may either be overly conservative or excessively aggressive [39][42]. - The dialogue suggests that while AI may create opportunities, it will also lead to job displacement, with a focus on the need for individuals to adapt and learn to leverage AI effectively [51][53]. - The conversation underscores the importance of recognizing market fluctuations as opportunities rather than threats, encouraging a proactive approach to investment in the AI sector [53][54].

上周的组合整体表现，简单说就是两个字： 舒服！ | | | 涨跌幅 | | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | A服 | 沪深300 | 1.31% | 中债新综合全价 | 0.10% | | 红利 | 中证红利 | 0.02% | 美国20年+国债 | 0.30% | | 港股 | 恒生科技 | 0.52% | 北京十 | 1.62% | | 美國 | 纳指100 | 1.57% | | | | 德国 | 德国DAX | 0.22% | | | | 日本 | 日经225 | 0.47% | 省心债组合 | 0.28% | | 印度 | 印度sensex30 | 0.42% | 懒人一均衡组合 | 1.07% | | 成南 | 胡志明指数 | 6.38% | 睿定投全球版组合 | 1.27% | 没有极端波动，也没有意外回撤，几个核心组合全线收红，节奏顺、状态稳，说实话也确实没太多需要纠结的地方，就是看着账户慢慢往上走，心情是愉 快的。 如果你还没参与，真的可以考虑跟车加入：每周投入金额自由选择，1,000、1,500、2,000 或 2,500 都可以， 既方便管 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global investment strategy has shown resilience despite a 1.47% decline last week, outperforming individual markets like the US and Vietnam [1][6]. Weekly Market Review - Global equity markets experienced a weak performance last week, with most major markets declining, particularly the US market. However, gold prices rose by 2.59%, and bond assets strengthened, providing a buffer for the investment portfolio [6][9]. - The global investment portfolio's drawdown was controlled, primarily due to a 12% allocation in gold, which effectively hedged against equity downturns [9][10]. Performance Summary - The global investment strategy has achieved a year-to-date return of 17.44%, aligning with the expected return goals. The "Lazy Balanced" strategy, which has a balanced allocation between stocks and bonds, has yielded approximately 12.88%, marking a new annual high since its inception [3][10][14]. - The "Lazy Balanced" strategy is designed for lower volatility and is suitable for investors sensitive to market fluctuations, aiming for relatively stable returns through global diversification [12][15]. Portfolio Adjustments - As the year-end approaches, the investment team has made strategic adjustments to the portfolio for 2026, adopting a core + satellite strategy. This includes increasing allocations in A-shares and precious metals while reducing holdings in high-dividend assets, aiming for a more balanced asset allocation to enhance stability and reduce volatility [18][20].

前言 过去这一年，我被问得最多的一个问题是： AI 会不会取代交易员？ 和"AI 会不会取代分析师"一样，这也是一个看似前沿、但其实已经有答案的问题。 真正值得讨论的，从来不是"会不会被取代"，而是——在期权这个领域，这种分化会来得更快、也更残 酷。 因为期权交易本质上就是一套： 对不确定性的定价系统。 策略多、变量多、非线性强、对纪律和执行要求极高。 这恰恰是 AI 最擅长、但也最容易被"教坏"的地方。 所以我一直强调： 未来真正有竞争力的期权交易者，不是"盯盘最快"的人，而是"最懂得如何把交易逻辑交给 AI 去执 行"的人。 期权交易，正在进入 AI-native 时代 很多人低估了 AI 对期权交易的影响。 过去，一个成熟的期权交易体系，往往依赖： 长期经验积累 以及极强的执行与复盘能力 这也是为什么，期权一直是一个门槛极高、但一旦走通就很强的领域。 但现在情况正在发生变化。 AI 已经可以 同时跟踪宏观数据、美联储政策与风险偏好变化 实时读取财报、公司事件与市场预期 结构化分析波动率、期限结构与事件冲击 按规则输出可执行、可回测的交易建议 换句话说：AI 正在把"复杂期权交易体系"变成一个可以被系统化 ...

为什么每隔一段时间 总有人站出来喊"泡沫要破了"？ 财经世界里，有一种"周期性角色"：永远的预言家，永远的怀疑者，永远的黑天鹅捕手。 Michael Burry 属于这一类。他人生有几个特点，决定了他为什么容易看到别人看不到的风险。 （大空头电影中的 Michael Burry 前言 最近，大空头 Michael Burry 又一次发出了预警：AI 的超级繁荣会在未来两年内破灭。 （这个新闻一出来，简直太热闹了 这句话像一枚石子，砸进了整个科技投资的湖面，激起了无数讨论、情绪、恐慌与兴奋。但真正值得思考的并不是"他说的是对还是错"，而是：我们应该 如何理解他、如何使用他、如何利用他。 一个现实是：2008 年他预判正确。2021 年他也预判过通胀上升。并不是一个普通嘴炮。但另一个现实是：他也被大规模质疑、被打脸，甚至因为情绪崩 溃关闭自己的基金。 换句话说，他不是先知，也不是笑话。他是一种"特殊能力的人"。而"特殊能力的人"，恰恰值得普通人深度理解。 要讲清楚这件事，我们得从头说起。 第一，他本质是个"异类"。医学背景、真实医生、童年疾病导致一只眼睛是假眼、社交障碍、强迫症——这些听起来很戏剧化，但构成了一个 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that the next major economic opportunity will be driven by AI, contrasting it with the previous two decades dominated by real estate [11][12] - It highlights the importance of individuals connecting with AI to benefit from this new trend, suggesting that those who can leverage AI will have a significant advantage [12][14] Group 1: Economic Trends - The past two decades saw wealth accumulation linked to real estate, with various sectors benefiting from this trend [9] - The article posits that AI will surpass real estate in terms of economic impact over the next twenty years, marking a significant shift in wealth generation [11] - The disparity between individuals will increasingly depend on their ability to engage with AI, either by using it or investing in it [12][18] Group 2: AI Utilization - Companies that effectively integrate AI into their operations can achieve unprecedented efficiency, as demonstrated by the practices of Supertrends, which utilizes AI to analyze vast amounts of data [15][17] - The article suggests that the ability to use AI will determine job security and future prospects for individuals, making it essential for professionals to adopt AI tools in their work [20] - Ordinary individuals are encouraged to find ways to incorporate AI into their roles to enhance productivity and outcomes [20] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The article discusses the potential for small teams to create billion-dollar companies by leveraging AI, which democratizes access to capabilities previously reserved for larger firms [24][26] - It emphasizes that the efficiency gains from using AI can lead to significant shifts in industry dynamics, making it a critical area for investment and innovation [26] - The author recommends reading works by thought leaders like Lars to understand the structural changes in the economy driven by AI [22]