年中展望 | 星火燎原（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of industries and the necessity for policy innovation in response to economic changes since 2022, highlighting the divergence in economic indicators and the impact of external factors on domestic industries [1][6]. Group 1: Industry Transformation and New Challenges - Since 2022, the economic transformation has entered a "new stage," characterized by a downward trend in the contribution of traditional sectors like real estate, with growth rates for real estate-related industries dropping below 2% [7][24]. - The pressure in this new stage is increasingly focused on terminal demand, leading to a decline in PPI while CPI remains weak, indicating a shift of excess capacity to downstream sectors [13][24]. - The transformation has resulted in a significant decline in the growth rate of traditional industries, similar to trends observed from 2011 to 2015, which ultimately stabilized the economy [7][13]. Group 2: Policy Innovation - The effectiveness of traditional policy frameworks has diminished, necessitating comprehensive policy innovation to address the new economic landscape [1][35]. - By the end of 2024, a comprehensive optimization of the policy framework was initiated, focusing on supply-side structural reforms and enhancing the targeting of structural policies [35][42]. - The new policy framework emphasizes high-quality development, high-level openness, and sustainable growth, with a shift from investment-driven to people-centered approaches [3][121]. Group 3: External Shocks as Accelerators - External shocks, particularly during the tariff phases, have accelerated domestic industrial upgrades, with significant shifts in trade structures observed [64][65]. - The first phase of tariffs led to a notable increase in high-value-added industries, while the second phase primarily impacted low-value-added consumer goods, which were already experiencing significant internal competition [64][101]. - The export structure has improved, with a decrease in the proportion of exports to the U.S. and an increase in exports to non-U.S. economies, particularly in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative [83][90]. Group 4: Focus on "Anti-Internal Competition" and Service Sector - The new policy framework is expected to focus on "anti-internal competition" and the service sector, which can absorb structural employment pressures during the transformation process [4][121]. - The service sector has become the largest employment absorption area, yet it faces significant supply shortages, indicating a need for increased support and demand stimulation [4][121]. - By the second half of 2025, the main macroeconomic indicators may experience a "strong-weak conversion," with potential downward pressure on manufacturing and positive improvements in service sector investments and consumption [4][121].