宋雪涛：美债新世界

Core Viewpoint - The status of US Treasury bonds as a "pricing anchor" is declining, challenging the effectiveness of traditional investment strategies, leading to a global rebalancing towards non-US and alternative assets [1][18]. Group 1: Concerns Over US Treasury Bonds - The long-term issues with US Treasury bonds stem from concerns about both demand and supply, influenced by changes in dollar credit and expectations of potential bond issuance due to fiscal deficits [3][4]. - The contribution of tariff revenues to US fiscal income is minimal, with tariffs projected to account for only 1.6% of total fiscal revenue in 2024, while net interest expenses have risen significantly [6][9]. - The perception of US Treasury bonds as a safe haven is eroding due to geopolitical tensions and the use of dollar and Treasury bonds as negotiation tools in trade discussions [9][10]. Group 2: Impact of Domestic Policies - The "Big Beautiful Bill" passed by the House raises concerns about increased fiscal deficits, potentially adding $3 trillion over ten years, which could exacerbate the mismatch between supply and demand for Treasury bonds [13][18]. - The Trump administration's spending cuts have fallen short of targets, with only $175 billion cut against a goal of $2 trillion, indicating a lack of commitment to fiscal discipline [15][18]. Group 3: Erosion of Dollar Credibility - The current US administration's departure from traditional values and geopolitical alliances undermines the foundational credibility of the dollar, which relies on trust in US technological and military superiority [16][17]. - Recent challenges to US technological and military dominance could significantly impact the dollar's strength and the sustainability of its fiscal and current account deficits [17][18]. Group 4: Shifts in Asset Allocation - The decline in the status of US Treasury bonds as a pricing anchor has led to a reevaluation of traditional asset allocation strategies, with a notable shift from the typical 60/40 stock-bond portfolio to alternatives like gold and cryptocurrencies [20][24]. - Global funds are increasingly diversifying into non-US assets, with central banks raising their gold reserves significantly, indicating a trend towards alternative asset classes [24][26]. - The performance of alternative assets has outpaced traditional stock-bond combinations, with gold and Bitcoin showing substantial gains in 2025 [26][24].