TRINA(SH:688599) 第一财经·2025-06-11 02:46Core Viewpoint - The solar industry is facing significant challenges due to overcapacity and price wars, leading to a consensus among leading companies that short-term profit-seeking and capacity expansion are not sustainable solutions [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - The solar industry is currently experiencing three main challenges: increasing international trade barriers, rapid capacity expansion leading to fierce price competition, and new requirements from national electricity market reforms [1][2]. - In 2024, production of polysilicon, silicon wafers, cells, and modules is expected to grow by over 10%, but prices across the supply chain have significantly declined, with polysilicon prices dropping over 39% and silicon wafer prices falling over 50% [2][3]. Group 2: Proposed Solutions - The chairman of GCL Group, Zhu Gongshan, suggests a collaborative approach between government and enterprises to address overcapacity through market-driven mergers, technology elimination mechanisms, and policy enforcement [2][3]. - Zhu emphasizes the need for unified capacity indicators within national planning, strict monitoring, and regulation to prevent unreasonable local protectionism and ensure effective capacity reduction [2][3]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The solar industry is expected to undergo significant restructuring, with upstream materials beginning to consolidate excess capacity, which could restore prices to reasonable levels and improve overall industry profitability [3]. - Despite current challenges, the solar industry is projected to see substantial growth, with global new installations expected to exceed 600 GW in 2024, marking a 30% year-on-year increase [3][4].