洪灏今天最新对话：中国或会在贸易战中得到一个比预期更有利的结果

Group 1 - The core viewpoint presented by Hong Hao is that the relationship between China and the United States resembles a couple going through a divorce, where both parties will have to deal with the consequences and negotiate the division of assets in the future [4][14]. - Hong Hao emphasizes that China is better prepared for the current trade war compared to previous instances, and this preparation has united the Chinese people, who are known for their resilience and ability to endure hardships [4][17]. - The trade negotiations are influenced by the fact that while Chinese consumers are ready to endure challenges, American consumers desire affordable goods, creating a foundation for negotiations [5][17]. Group 2 - Hong Hao predicts that the US dollar will continue to weaken in the coming years, and the previously unfavorable situation for the Chinese yuan may be changing [7][22]. - Despite stable growth and exports in China, the consumption sector remains below expectations and has not yet recovered, while the real estate sector continues to face challenges [8][21]. - The Chinese economy is primarily investment-driven rather than consumption-driven, and achieving economic rebalancing cannot rely solely on China's efforts; it requires a global approach involving both China and the US [9][10][29]. Group 3 - The current trade war is characterized by China's preparedness, which is significantly better than in previous conflicts, leading to a more favorable outcome for China than anticipated [19][21]. - The World Bank has downgraded growth forecasts for 70% of global economies, but China's growth forecast remains unchanged, indicating a relative strength in its economic performance [20][21]. - The need for global economic rebalancing is highlighted, with both China and the US needing to adjust their consumption and production patterns to achieve a more balanced economic structure [27][29].