创新药“DeepSeek时刻”已经到来？

Core Viewpoint - The innovative drug sector in China has emerged as a significant player in the capital market since 2025, with over 90% of more than 280 medical-themed funds achieving positive returns this year, some exceeding 50% [1] Group 1: Market Performance and Growth - The innovative drug sector's resurgence is attributed to a fundamental reversal in the market, with record-high license-out transaction amounts between Chinese companies and multinational corporations (MNCs), including a recent $1.25 billion upfront payment from 3SBio to Pfizer for a PD-1/VEGF dual antibody deal [1] - In Q1 of this year, Chinese pharmaceutical companies completed 33 license-out transactions totaling $36.6 billion, a 258% year-on-year increase [1] - On May 29, a record 11 innovative drugs were approved in a single day, and at the 2025 ASCO conference, 73 oral reports from China were presented, marking a historical high [2] Group 2: Policy and Regulatory Support - The Chinese government is actively supporting the innovative drug sector, with the 2024 State Council's implementation plan emphasizing the integration of basic research and industrialization [2] - The National Healthcare Security Administration announced the introduction of the first version of the Class B medical insurance catalog, which includes innovative and high-priced drugs, further stimulating the pharmaceutical sector [2] Group 3: Competitive Advantages and Global Positioning - China has significant cost advantages in R&D talent, clinical trial execution, raw materials, and manufacturing, accelerating innovation and attracting international collaboration [4] - As of early 2024, the number of innovative products under development by Chinese pharmaceutical companies has nearly doubled since July 2021, with 60 drugs transitioning from fast-following to first-in-class status [5] - The application of AI in drug discovery is expected to create $60-110 billion in annual value for the pharmaceutical industry, further enhancing China's competitive edge [5] Group 4: Strategic Challenges and Opportunities - The surge in license-out transactions is a natural outcome of the MNC patent cliff, with projections indicating that Chinese licensing projects could generate approximately $8.2 billion in net profits from 2020 to 2025, translating to a potential market value increase of $81.7 billion [6] - The U.S. National Security Council has identified China's biopharmaceutical industry as a strategic challenge, advocating for increased domestic innovation while attempting to curb China's rapid advancements [7] - Despite geopolitical tensions, China's innovative drug sector possesses the resilience and talent necessary to navigate policy risks and capitalize on emerging opportunities [8]