国泰海通｜批零社服：5月出口增速回落但韧性仍强

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariffs and high base effects on China's export growth in May, highlighting the resilience of foreign trade amid ongoing US-China trade negotiations and the potential for valuation recovery in companies with high exposure to the US market [1][2]. Group 1: Export Data Analysis - In May, China's export growth slowed to 4.8% with a month-on-month decline of 3.3 percentage points, while imports fell by 3.4% [1]. - The decline in exports to the US was significant at -35%, while exports to the EU increased by 12% [1]. - Exports to Africa, ASEAN, and Latin America showed growth rates of 33%, 15%, and 2% respectively, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [1]. Group 2: Trade Negotiations - A new round of US-China trade talks took place in London on June 9, with expectations for progress on tariff reductions and easing of technical restrictions [2]. - Prior discussions between President Xi Jinping and President Trump emphasized the importance of implementing the Geneva consensus and continuing negotiations [2]. Group 3: Cross-Border E-commerce Outlook - The article anticipates that Q2 sales data for cross-border e-commerce companies will show differentiation due to recent tariff reductions and upcoming promotional events like Amazon's Prime Day [3]. - Companies with a high proportion of US business are expected to see steady recovery in sales, while some may face challenges due to price increases and rising shipping costs [3]. - Long-term strategies for companies include multi-regional and multi-channel approaches, with leading firms focusing on brand enhancement and AI applications to strengthen risk resilience [3].