热点思考｜入境游“有多火”？（申万宏观 · 赵伟团队)

Group 1 - The tourism market is experiencing a strong recovery, with inbound tourism showing particularly robust growth, as evidenced by flight execution and travel orders. In 2024, domestic travel has rebounded to 56.1% of historical trends, while inbound tourism has reached 81.9% of historical trends, with travel exports recovering to 138% of 2019 levels [2][10][83] - From the perspective of visitor demographics, tourists from Southeast Asia are showing significant recovery in inbound tourism, while recovery from regions like North America is slower. In 2024, the proportion of tourists from Southeast Asia in Shanghai increased to 22.5%, up 6.8 percentage points from 2023, while the proportion from North America decreased by 2 percentage points [2][17][83] - The recovery pace of China's inbound tourism market is accelerating after 2024, indicating that the tourism market's recovery is not solely dependent on scale expansion. By April 2025, inbound tourist numbers in Shanghai reached 115.3% of the 2019 average, surpassing countries like Thailand and Singapore [3][23][83] Group 2 - The increase in inbound tourism is attributed to the facilitation of visa policies and cultural exports, which effectively stimulate inbound demand. In 2024, the number of foreign visitors entering China through visa exemptions reached 20.12 million, a year-on-year increase of 112.3% [4][26][84] - Historical examples show that optimizing visa policies can significantly release inbound tourism demand. For instance, Japan's gradual relaxation of visa policies from 2013 led to a substantial increase in inbound visitors, from 8.358 million in 2012 to 31.882 million in 2019 [4][34][84] Group 3 - The current low export share of travel and entertainment services in China's GDP indicates significant potential for growth, as the service sector has been relatively closed off. In 2024, travel exports accounted for only 0.1% of GDP, compared to a global average of 1.6% [6][50][61] - The Chinese government is increasing its focus on opening up the service sector, which is expected to release substantial demand for inbound tourism. Recent policies emphasize the importance of service sector openness, which could lead to sustained growth in inbound tourism over the next decade [6][61][66]