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6月出口会反弹吗?——5月外贸数据点评(25.05)(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
赵伟宏观探索·2025-06-11 23:28

Core Viewpoint - The role of "export grabbing" is shifting from emerging markets to the U.S. as May exports show a decline due to the retreat of "export grabbing" and a high base effect from the previous year [3][53]. Export Analysis - May exports fell by 3.3 percentage points to 4.8% year-on-year, influenced by a high base and a decline in exports to ASEAN (-6.0 percentage points to 15.1%) and India (-9.2 percentage points to 12.7%) [3][10]. - The export growth of midstream manufacturing remains high but shows a marginal decline, with energy resource exports dropping significantly, from 7.4% and 1.3% in April to 6.3% and -3.5% in May, respectively [3][17]. - There are emerging signs of "export grabbing" towards the U.S., with May exports to the U.S. declining by 13.5 percentage points to -34.4%, but certain categories like toys (+5.4 percentage points to -1.1%) and clothing (+3.7 percentage points to 2.5%) show recovery [4][19]. Future Outlook - In June, the focus is expected to shift from emerging markets to the U.S. for "export grabbing," with overall export growth likely to receive some support [4][29]. - Three indicators suggest continued "export grabbing": positive year-on-year growth in processing trade imports in May, a surge in container bookings from the U.S. in late May, and a seasonal price increase in Yiwu small commodities [4][29]. Import Analysis - May imports fell by 3.4% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in bulk commodity imports, with copper (-18.6% to 5.8%), crude oil (-8.2% to -0.8%), and iron ore (-5.1% to -3.8%) all showing decreases [6][56]. - The import growth of electromechanical products saw a slight increase (+0.1 percentage points to 5.5%), while bulk commodity imports declined significantly [6][44]. Sector-Specific Trends - In consumer goods, the export growth of consumer electronics increased (+1.5 percentage points to 3.8%), while light industrial products and real estate chain goods saw declines [5][55]. - Capital goods and intermediate goods exports showed divergence, with ship exports rising (+7.6 percentage points to 43.7%) while general machinery exports fell (-11.4 percentage points to 5.6%) [5][35]. - Exports to major economies showed a general decline, with exports to the U.S. down (-13.5 percentage points to -34.4%) while exports to the UK increased (+13.1 percentage points to 15.8%) [5][40].