香港为何颁布《稳定币条例》？稳定币会不会不稳定？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the gradual legalization of stablecoins globally and their potential impact on traditional financial systems, particularly in relation to U.S. Treasury bonds and the evolving regulatory landscape [2][21]. Group 1: Understanding Stablecoins - Stablecoins are blockchain-based digital currencies that are pegged to specific assets, primarily the U.S. dollar, which distinguishes them from volatile cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin [4]. - The development of stablecoins can be categorized into four stages: emergence (pre-2018), rapid growth (2019-2021), regulatory adjustments (2022-2023), and resurgence (2024-present) [6][8]. Group 2: Regulatory Developments - Recent legislative actions in the U.S. and Hong Kong have established regulatory frameworks for stablecoins, including the U.S. "GENIUS Act" and Hong Kong's "Stablecoin Ordinance," which emphasize compliance, transparency, and reserve management [9][21]. - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that stablecoins could increase demand for U.S. Treasury bonds by $2 trillion, highlighting their potential role in the financial system [2]. Group 3: Risks and Challenges - Stablecoins face risks related to issuer compliance and operational management, with concerns about the transparency of reserve assets and liquidity management [13][19]. - The collapse of TerraUSD (UST) in 2022 raised significant concerns about the stability of stablecoins, leading to increased regulatory scrutiny [8][10]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - Major stablecoin issuers like Tether and Circle hold substantial amounts of short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, approximately $1.705 trillion, which constitutes about 80% of their reserve assets [17]. - The trading volume of stablecoins is misleadingly inflated, with a significant portion attributed to automated trading activities rather than actual human transactions [19]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article suggests that while stablecoins have advantages, such as efficiency and potential for cross-border payments, they still face significant hurdles in replacing traditional payment systems [31][33]. - The profitability of stablecoin issuers relies on interest rate differentials, which may expose them to risks if regulatory environments change or if users shift to other digital currencies [33].