【广发宏观陈嘉荔】如何看美国5月通胀数据

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent U.S. inflation data for May, which was slightly below expectations, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year at 2.4%, matching the previous value and the forecast [1][6]. Inflation Data Summary - The CPI year-on-year was reported at 2.4%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, compared to the previous month's 0.2% [1][6]. - Core CPI remained stable at 2.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [1][9]. - The Cleveland Fed's Trimmed Mean CPI for May was 3.03%, slightly higher than the previous 2.97% [9]. - The Atlanta Fed's Sticky CPI year-on-year was 3.16%, down from 3.21% [9]. Core Goods and Services Prices - Core goods prices remained unchanged month-on-month at 0%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [11]. - Notable price changes included a decrease in clothing (-0.4%) and new cars (-0.3), while medical goods (0.6%) and personal computers (1.1%) saw increases [11][12]. - Core services prices increased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [12]. Corporate Responses to Tariffs - Major U.S. consumer companies are responding to high tariffs by stockpiling inventory, absorbing some tariff costs, prioritizing certain categories, and managing SKU levels [3][13]. - Retailers are indicating that some tariffs are difficult to absorb, with some planning to raise prices in batches from late May to June [3][15]. Interest Rate Outlook - The article suggests that the lack of significant inflation increases supports the argument for a temporary inflation outlook, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates [4][15]. - Market expectations indicate a slight increase in the probability of rate cuts later in the year, with a 61.6% chance of a cut in September [4][15]. Stock Market Reactions - U.S. stock markets experienced volatility, with tech stocks leading a decline after initial gains driven by inflation data [5][17]. - The Nasdaq index fell by 0.5%, while the S&P 500 dropped by 0.27% [5][17]. Tariff Impact on Inflation - The overall effective tariff rate in the U.S. has risen to 15.6%, the highest since 1937, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures from tariffs [16]. - The article notes that the impact of tariffs on prices has not yet fully materialized, suggesting that risks of economic recession or hard landing are reduced [17].