2025年全球智能手机制造预计小幅下滑，印度制造有望逆势增长

Core Viewpoint - The global smartphone manufacturing output is expected to decline by 1% in 2025, influenced by tariffs and an overall slowdown in the industry, contrasting with a 4% growth in 2024 [1][4]. Regional Manufacturing Insights - China, India, and Vietnam are projected to account for over 90% of global smartphone production in 2024, with India showing the fastest growth. However, manufacturing output is expected to diverge across regions in 2025 [1][4]. - China will experience significant tariff impacts, leading to a decline in smartphone manufacturing output and a weak domestic market [4][6]. - India is anticipated to be the biggest beneficiary, with a projected double-digit percentage growth in manufacturing output, reaching 20% of global production for the first time, driven by sustained export demand from Apple and Samsung [4][6]. - Vietnam is expected to see steady growth in production, benefiting from increased output by Samsung and Motorola amid tariff pressures and manufacturing shifts [4][6]. Manufacturing Capacity and Ecosystem - India's local manufacturing capabilities have significantly improved over the past decade, supported by investments from global EMS giants and local firms, enabling it to meet higher production demands [8]. - The Indian government has introduced the Electronics Components Manufacturing Scheme (ECMS) to encourage investment in local manufacturing [8]. - Other regions are likely to maintain a slight downward trend in manufacturing share due to limited local market demand and investment scale [8]. Long-term Outlook - India is projected to emerge as a long-term winner in the global smartphone manufacturing landscape, with potential cost increases for products manufactured in the U.S. due to various factors, including labor costs and logistics [9].