海豚投研·2025-06-12 10:35Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential risks and impacts of a strict 60-day payment term for automotive companies, highlighting that many companies, including BYD, may face significant cash flow challenges if this policy is enforced [1][5][20]. Group 1: Impact of 60-Day Payment Term - If the 60-day payment term is strictly enforced, companies like BYD could face a payment gap of nearly 300 billion yuan, with other companies like SAIC and Geely also having substantial gaps [6][9]. - The average accounts payable cycle for Chinese automotive companies is currently 5-6 months, with some companies like BYD having cycles as long as 7 months, which would lead to severe cash flow issues if the new term is implemented [1][5]. Group 2: Company Cash Flow Analysis - Tesla and Li Auto are identified as the safest companies with sufficient cash flow to cover their payment gaps, while companies like NIO, Geely, and BYD are at risk of needing immediate external financing [8][9][12]. - The analysis categorizes companies into different risk levels based on their cash flow and debt levels, with NIO, Geely, and BYD being among the highest risk due to their cash flow deficiencies [12][14]. Group 3: Reasons for Shortening Payment Terms - The automotive industry has an average accounts payable cycle of 6 months, indicating a heavy reliance on upstream supply chain financing, which is unsustainable in the current competitive environment [16][18]. - The ongoing price wars among automotive companies are exacerbating financial pressures, leading to a situation where many companies are experiencing losses while also carrying high operational and interest-bearing debts [18][20]. Group 4: Policy Implications and Industry Dynamics - The government's intention behind enforcing a shorter payment term is to prevent systemic risks in the automotive supply chain and to curb the excessive reliance on supply chain financing for growth [20][22]. - The article suggests that the policy may lead to a shift in competition from leveraging payment terms to focusing on product quality and operational efficiency, thereby changing the competitive landscape of the automotive industry [29][30].