从美元霸权到美元上链：稳定币如何重构全球资金路径？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation, which establishes a comprehensive regulatory framework for fiat-backed stablecoins, marking a significant shift in the global financial landscape. It emphasizes that stablecoins are not challenging the dollar's credit but are altering the flow paths and pricing mechanisms of global capital, representing a revolution in "pathways" rather than "currency" [1][5][14]. Summary by Sections Stablecoins Overview - Stablecoins are extensions of the existing monetary system under digital technology, providing a bridge between traditional finance and crypto assets, enhancing transaction stability and cross-border payment capabilities [2]. - They are categorized into three types: fiat-backed, crypto-collateralized, and algorithmic stablecoins, each with distinct mechanisms and risk profiles [2][3][4]. Impact on the Dollar and U.S. Treasury Bonds - Stablecoins amplify the dollar's liquidity and provide a new channel for U.S. Treasury bonds, acting as new marginal buyers in the bond market, which could influence short-term interest rates [15][17]. - The relationship between stablecoin net purchases and U.S. Treasury yields indicates that significant inflows can lower yields, while outflows can increase them, highlighting the sensitivity of the bond market to stablecoin dynamics [19]. Regulatory Developments - Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation, effective from August 2025, mandates 100% fiat reserves for stablecoin issuers and prohibits anonymous transactions, establishing a legal framework for stablecoins in Asia [28][29]. - This regulation aims to create a compliant dollar channel in Asia, allowing stablecoins to operate within a regulated environment, thus enhancing their legitimacy and integration into the financial system [28][30]. Market Opportunities and Investment Strategies - The article suggests focusing on companies that can provide essential services for stablecoin compliance, such as payment interfaces and identity verification, as they are likely to benefit from the new regulatory landscape [36][37]. - It highlights the potential for the Chinese yuan stablecoin pilot in Hong Kong, which could create opportunities for firms involved in digital currency infrastructure [36]. - The strategic revaluation of Hong Kong dollar assets is also noted, as stablecoins may enhance the dollar's utility and the market value of related financial instruments [37]. Global Capital Flow and Financial System Transformation - Stablecoins are reshaping global capital flows by providing a decentralized, efficient alternative to traditional banking systems, allowing for real-time, low-cost cross-border transactions [22][25]. - The emergence of stablecoins challenges existing regulatory frameworks, necessitating a reevaluation of how capital flows are monitored and controlled [26][27]. Conclusion - The establishment of stablecoin regulations signifies a pivotal moment for the dollar's role in global finance, as it transitions from a state-controlled currency to a more market-driven instrument, potentially altering the dynamics of international capital flows and financial stability [21][34].