（转载请注明出处：微信公众号 lixunlei0722 ） 中国经济已步入存量经济主导的时代。一方面，我国经济体量大，"中国已成大象，不可能再躲在树后"，国际 经贸斗争对优化存量、争取增量提出了更高要求；另一方面，多年来的经济发展也累积了一定规模的债务，增 量债务可能面临边际效益递减，存量债务也可能不像"船小好调头"。"十五五"规划建议已经擘画了五年的发展 蓝图，今天落幕的中央经济工作会议又将对2026年的经济发展提出哪些具体指示要求？本文试作分析。 大国关系成为影响经济重要变量 ——以苦练内功开展"经贸斗争" 这次中央经济工作会议提出"外部环境变化的影响加深"，相比去年末的会议，没有再提" 不利影响加深 "，说明面对加征关税、高科技封锁等外部压力，我国已经更有信心去应对，并有能力化不利为有利， 主动运筹国际空间、塑造外部环境的诸多有利因素。 中央经济工作会议在总结经济工作规律性认识中提出，必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑战，对于明年的工 作提出"坚持稳中求进工作总基调，更好统筹国内经济工作和 国际经贸斗争 ，更好统筹发展和安全"要 求。"坚持稳中求进工作总基调"是多年来始终坚持的经济工作重要原则，"更好统筹发展和 ...

Group 1: Real Estate Cycle - The long-term upward cycle of real estate from 2000 to 2020 led to a belief that housing prices would not decline, but this notion has been challenged as prices have started to fall [2][3] - The average rental yield in core cities of China is estimated to be around 2%, indicating a high price-to-earnings ratio of 50 times, suggesting that prices may need to adjust to a more sustainable level [3] - Real estate development investment in China has decreased by 14.7% year-on-year in the first ten months of the year, indicating a potential acceleration in the downward trend [3][6] Group 2: Economic Impact of Real Estate - The decline in the real estate sector is expected to continue affecting the overall economy, with private investment growth dropping by 4.5% year-on-year, even excluding real estate investments [3][6] - The real estate downturn is also negatively impacting financial sectors such as banking and trust, although state-owned enterprises are providing some stability [3][6] Group 3: Export Trends - China's exports have shown resilience, with a 5.3% increase in the first ten months of the year, despite concerns about negative growth earlier in the year [7][10] - However, the export growth rate is expected to slow down in the coming year due to the diminishing "import grabbing" effect from the U.S. and high base effects from previous years [10] Group 4: Consumer Spending - Consumer spending is projected to contribute more than half of GDP growth this year, as capital formation's contribution declines [11][14] - The consumption growth has shown a pattern of being high in the first half of the year and lower in the second half, influenced by previous stimulus measures [14][17] Group 5: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The fiscal policy for 2026 is expected to be more aggressive, with a projected increase in the general deficit from approximately 11.9 trillion yuan to 13.2 trillion yuan [26][28] - Interest rates may be lowered by 10-20 basis points in 2026, but this poses challenges for banks' net interest margins [29][35] Group 6: Stock Market Dynamics - The stock market has faced resistance around the 4000-point mark, with valuation increases rather than profit growth driving recent performance [39][41] - For a sustained bull market, corporate profits must grow faster than GDP, which has not been the case recently [41][44] Group 7: Future Outlook - The GDP growth target for 2026 is estimated to remain around 5%, but achieving this will depend on various uncertain factors, including growth rates and exchange rates [24][25] - The real estate sector's ongoing challenges and the need for structural reforms in fiscal and monetary policies are critical for future economic stability [28][48]

（转载请注明出处：微信公众号 lixunlei0722 ） 引 言 2025年的A股市场，在经历了三年深度调整后，迎来了一轮颇具特色的以科技创新为主线的结构性行 情。但近期，美股以英伟达为代表的AI核心资产在高位剧烈震荡：一边是业绩和收入指引仍在上 调，一边是股价连续回调、波动加大，海外资本市场开始密集讨论"AI泡沫"相关话题。 同时，国内投资者也面临类似困惑：A股市场的科技板块也出现了明显的调整。那么，当前的中美科 技行情，是产业长期空间推动下的价值重估，还是新一轮泡沫化周期的中段？本轮 A股泛科技的主线 行情还会如何演绎？ 本文将围绕这些核心问题展开深入剖析，试图从资金驱动的底层逻辑出发，系 统解析本轮行情的底层驱动逻辑、资金行为特征，并对后续市场空间进行展望。 风险偏好重估： 本轮行情的底层驱动逻辑 本轮行情核心驱动的独特之处在于：盈利端增速放缓但估值中枢抬升，流动性维持温和宽松但非决定性 力量，真正推动行情的是风险偏好层面的深刻变化。 另外，从流动性端看，2024年以来央行货币政策基调保持稳健偏松，但历史经验表明，流动性充裕只是 股市上涨的必要条件而非充分条件——2018年四次降准市场仍下跌，2015 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of boosting domestic consumption and effective investment as a strategic foundation for China's economic development, aiming to enhance the internal circulation of the economy [2][5][15] - The article highlights that in the first three quarters, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 36,587.7 billion yuan, growing by 4.5%, with a notable increase in goods retail sales by 4.6% and a slower growth in catering revenue at 3.3% [2] - It is noted that the growth of service consumption outpaced that of goods consumption, indicating a shift in consumer behavior, although challenges remain with insufficient effective demand [5][11] Group 2 - The article discusses the relationship between boosting consumption and effective investment, stating that while consumption is prioritized, investment must be effective, focusing on sectors like AI and new infrastructure rather than traditional infrastructure [6][9] - The concept of "effective investment" is defined, emphasizing the need for investments in areas that support high-tech advancements and sustainable development, such as energy supply for AI computing [6][9] - The article mentions that the new policy financial tools introduced in the fourth quarter aim to support new infrastructure and strategic emerging industries, contrasting with previous tools that included traditional infrastructure [9] Group 3 - The article stresses the importance of public consumption in enhancing private consumption, particularly through social security and welfare programs, to support low- and middle-income groups [11][12] - It highlights the necessity of developing the service industry to absorb employment, especially as traditional industries become more automated [13] - The article suggests that relaxing regulations in certain sectors could stimulate domestic consumption among high-income groups, thereby creating job opportunities and increasing tax revenue [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current trends in the Chinese stock market and gold prices, analyzing the driving forces behind these trends and providing investment advice for ordinary investors. Stock Market Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index is approaching the 4000-point mark, indicating a ten-year high in the stock market [3] - The stock market's momentum is attributed to various factors, including improvements in listed companies' fundamentals, declining interest rates, and policy stimuli [10][12] - The market is characterized by high turnover rates, leading to elevated valuations, making it challenging for investors to profit [6][7] - The concept of a "slow bull" market is discussed, suggesting that a sustained upward trend over three to five years would be necessary to confirm this classification [9][10] Investment Psychology - Investors often struggle with greed and fear, which can lead to poor investment decisions [4] - The importance of understanding the fundamentals of listed companies and avoiding herd mentality is emphasized [5][6] Gold Market Insights - Gold prices have surged, recently surpassing $4300 per ounce, raising concerns about potential overvaluation [3][41] - The article suggests caution in investing in gold at current high prices, advocating for a more strategic approach to asset allocation [36][40] Economic Context - The article highlights the disconnect between stock market performance and economic growth, noting that corporate profit growth remains low despite rising stock prices [16][19] - The potential for a shift in asset allocation from real estate to the stock market is discussed, as traditional investment avenues become less viable [28][29] Future Outlook - The article posits that for a sustainable "slow bull" market, corporate earnings growth must exceed 10% [16] - The need for a more mature capital market that embraces value investing and improves corporate governance is emphasized [8][12]

Group 1 - The article discusses the long-term global peace since World War II, leading to significant population growth and economic expansion, but also highlights the rising issues of wealth disparity, environmental pollution, and increasing national debts [1] - Global macro leverage ratios have been increasing, primarily driven by government borrowing, with government debt levels reaching historical highs post-2008 financial crisis [2][5] - The article notes that the macro leverage ratio in China has surpassed 300%, exceeding that of the US and developed countries, indicating a trend of increasing government debt [2][14] Group 2 - The structure of leverage in major economies shows that government sectors are increasing leverage while corporate and household sectors are stabilizing or reducing their leverage [5][10] - The article explains that only governments are willing to increase leverage counter-cyclically, as they can coordinate fiscal and monetary policies to create favorable borrowing conditions [7][10] - It highlights that during significant economic events, government deficits and debts tend to spike, as seen during the COVID-19 pandemic [16][19] Group 3 - The article discusses the challenges of tax reforms, noting that high-income countries tend to maintain stable tax revenues while facing pressures to reduce corporate tax rates [22][24] - It points out that the US has seen a decline in corporate tax burdens while increasing payroll taxes, potentially exacerbating wealth inequality [24][25] - Japan's tax structure has shifted towards consumption taxes, which disproportionately affect lower-income groups [27][28] Group 4 - The article emphasizes the need for increased government spending on social security due to aging populations, with the US seeing a significant rise in mandatory spending related to social welfare [31][34] - China's government has been increasing subsidies to social insurance funds significantly, indicating a growing fiscal burden due to demographic changes [37][38] - The article warns of diminishing returns on debt-driven growth, suggesting that the efficiency of using debt to stimulate economic growth is declining [49][51] Group 5 - The article suggests that China should focus on demand-side strategies to address overcapacity and low inflation, advocating for increased consumption from both government and households [51][58] - It discusses the importance of improving the efficiency of fiscal spending, shifting from construction-focused investments to social welfare and public services [54][58] - Recommendations include enhancing transparency in public debt, reducing local government hidden debts, and improving the overall fiscal framework to support sustainable growth [59][60]

Core Viewpoint - The current stock market rally is primarily driven by capital inflow and valuation enhancement due to declining interest rates, with a notable increase in personal investor participation [3][10][27]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent stock market increase has seen a rise of over 1000 points, yet the overall market valuation remains reasonable without signs of a bubble [3][10]. - A-shares financing balance has surpassed the peak levels of 2015, but the proportion of financing balance to circulating market value is significantly lower than in 2015, indicating a more stable market environment [3][13]. - The average P/E ratio of the CSI 300 index is around 14 times, compared to 29 times for the S&P 500 and 41 times for the Nasdaq, suggesting that A-shares are still reasonably valued [18][20]. Group 2: Growth and Earnings - The growth potential of the market is contingent on sustained corporate earnings growth, with A-share companies' net profit growth averaging only 2.5% in the first half of 2025 [27]. - The net profit of A-share companies for the first half of 2025 reached 2.99 trillion yuan, marking a 2.5% increase compared to the same period in 2024, with significant growth in sectors like advanced manufacturing and digital economy [25][27]. - The market's rebound is influenced by the decline in deposit rates, which enhances valuations, but long-term bullish trends require continuous earnings growth [27]. Group 3: Policy and Market Sentiment - The Chinese government aims to enhance the attractiveness and inclusivity of the capital market, which is expected to support a stable upward trend in the market [8][9]. - There are numerous policy tools available to support the market, and a cautious optimism is advised as the market is not expected to experience extreme fluctuations [6][42]. - The current market environment differs from previous years, with a shift from an expanding to a contracting balance sheet for households, which limits the potential for excessive market bubbles [5][43]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The A-share market is characterized by rationality, with significant differentiation in returns among actively managed equity funds, highlighting the importance of underlying asset selection [28]. - A diversified investment strategy across various markets, including A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, bonds, and commodities, is recommended to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [34][37]. - The ongoing advancements in technology, particularly in AI, present significant growth opportunities, but investors should remain cautious and avoid speculative narratives [38][39].

Group 1 - The term "structural" has gained popularity since 2016, particularly in the context of supply-side structural reforms, leading to a "structural bull market" where investment opportunities are concentrated in a few sectors [1] - The real estate market has also experienced a structural shift, with a growing number of cities showing price declines rather than uniform increases, indicating a divergence in market performance [1] - Shanghai's luxury real estate market is thriving, with high-end properties seeing significant price increases, contrasting with the overall downward trend in the national housing market [2][3] Group 2 - Shanghai's luxury market is characterized by strong demand, with high-value properties consistently selling out, indicating a robust appetite for premium real estate despite broader market challenges [3][7] - The price of new luxury apartments in Shanghai has risen sharply, with some projects experiencing price increases of over 16% within a year, highlighting the resilience of high-end real estate [3][4] - The disparity in real estate performance between Shanghai and other cities can be attributed to factors such as urbanization trends, income inequality, and a scarcity of high-quality assets in the market [8][11] Group 3 - The current economic environment in China is marked by an "asset shortage," where low interest rates and declining returns on traditional investments drive wealthy individuals towards luxury real estate as a means of asset appreciation [11][14] - The overall real estate market in China remains sluggish, with a decline in sales volume and prices, yet the luxury segment in major cities like Shanghai continues to perform well [11][12] - The comparison with Japan's real estate market suggests that while Shanghai's luxury prices are increasing, they are doing so at a slower rate than Tokyo's historical declines, indicating a different market dynamic [2][4] Group 4 - The structural bull market in the stock market is driven by technological advancements, particularly in AI and semiconductor sectors, which are experiencing significant growth despite broader economic challenges [26][30] - The A-share market shows a preference for smaller companies, contrasting with the U.S. market where larger firms dominate, indicating different investment behaviors and market structures [29][30] - The ongoing transformation of China's economy is evident, with emerging industries gaining market share, suggesting a shift in investment focus towards technology and innovation [25][34]

Core Viewpoint - The article draws a parallel between human hypothermia and economic stagnation, suggesting that just as individuals can misinterpret their physical sensations in extreme cold, markets can also misinterpret economic signals, leading to false perceptions of economic health [1][2]. Economic Data vs. Perception - Economic data often lags behind real-time events, leading to discrepancies between actual economic conditions and public perception [2]. - The case of Japan's "lost 30 years" illustrates how prolonged economic stagnation can occur despite seemingly positive data, as evidenced by Japan's CPI growth from 1991 to 2021 being only 7.5% [2][5]. Japan's Economic Stagnation - Japan's per capita GDP in 1991 was $28,666, peaking at $38,467 in 1994, but by 2024, it is projected to be only $32,420, indicating a significant decline when adjusted for inflation [5][7]. - The Nikkei 225 index peaked at 38,900 points in 1989 but fell to around 8,700 points by 2012, reflecting a long-term economic decline [7][10]. Policy Misjudgments - Japanese authorities underestimated the impact of the real estate bubble burst, leading to ineffective policy responses that failed to stimulate recovery [10][11]. - The Bank of Japan's delayed shift from tight to loose monetary policy contributed to prolonged deflation, with interest rates remaining high until 1995 [11]. Ineffective Fiscal Policies - Japan's fiscal policies oscillated between expansion and contraction, lacking coherence and effectiveness, which hindered economic recovery [11][12]. - Public works spending increased significantly in the 1990s, but much of it was directed towards low-impact projects in declining regions, resulting in wasted resources [12][14]. Lessons from Japan's Experience - Japan's experience highlights the importance of targeted investment in sectors that can drive growth, rather than indiscriminate infrastructure spending [23][27]. - The need for a coherent industrial policy to foster new industries is critical, as Japan has struggled to innovate in emerging sectors like technology and renewable energy [17][23]. Conclusion - The article emphasizes that while increasing public investment can stabilize growth, it must be strategically directed to avoid economic imbalances and ensure effective use of resources [27][28].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the rising macro leverage ratio in China, which has exceeded 300%, reflects the cost of economic growth, and this trend is analyzed in comparison with the leverage ratios of the US, Japan, and Germany [1][2][38] - The macro leverage ratio in China has increased significantly from 239.5% in 2019 to 286.5% in 2024, indicating a faster growth in debt compared to nominal GDP growth [2][34] - The article highlights that the increase in leverage is primarily driven by government departments and state-owned enterprises, with the government leverage ratio rising from 59.6% in 2019 to 88.4% in 2024 [15][29] Group 2 - The article breaks down the macro leverage ratio into three components: household, non-financial enterprises, and government, showing that the leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises in China has risen significantly since 2022, primarily due to state-owned enterprises [9][12] - The leverage ratio of households in China has remained relatively stable, with minor fluctuations, while the leverage ratios of non-financial enterprises and government have shown more pronounced changes [6][15] - The article notes that the increase in government leverage in China is not solely linked to international economic crises, suggesting a potential weakening of the effectiveness of counter-cyclical policies [26][29] Group 3 - The article discusses the impact of nominal GDP growth on leverage ratios, indicating that despite higher real GDP growth in China compared to the US, the nominal GDP growth has been slower, contributing to the rising leverage ratio [39][40] - It emphasizes the importance of improving the efficiency of debt resource utilization to lower the macro leverage ratio, suggesting that enhancing labor productivity and technological advancement are crucial [46][49] - The article concludes that China faces a situation of "debt before wealth," where the macro leverage ratio is high relative to per capita GDP, indicating a need for structural reforms to address the underlying economic issues [46][47]