时至年中，2025年大宗商品需求怎么看？

Core Viewpoint - Major institutions have revised down their global economic growth forecasts for 2025, which impacts demand for commodities, particularly industrial products like oil and copper [3][10][12]. Group 1: Economic Forecasts - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its 2025 global economic growth forecast to 2.8%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from January [10]. - The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has also adjusted its forecasts, predicting a growth rate of 2.9% for both 2025 and 2026, down by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively [11]. - The World Bank has reduced its 2025 growth forecast from 2.7% to 2.3%, indicating that nearly 70% of economies have seen their growth rates downgraded [12][13]. Group 2: Commodity Demand Analysis - The divergence in consumption growth rates for oil and copper is significant, with oil showing a consumption divergence of 0.8% compared to copper's 1.3% [24]. - Current forecasts suggest that copper consumption growth could range from 0.6% to 2.5% depending on the institution, indicating a substantial disagreement among forecasts [19][22]. - For oil, the consumption growth forecasts range from -0.6% to 1.2%, reflecting a similar level of uncertainty [23][27]. Group 3: Price and Trading Dynamics - Copper prices remain relatively high, while oil prices are at a low point, indicating a significant disparity in market conditions [4][26]. - The copper-to-oil ratio is currently around 146, which is historically high, suggesting that copper may be overvalued compared to oil [29]. - The market is currently experiencing low volatility, with traders awaiting a clearer direction for both commodities [28]. Group 4: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical instances of extreme copper-to-oil ratios have been linked to supply disruptions and significant demand changes, which are not currently present [39][40]. - The analysis suggests that the extreme copper-to-oil ratio may correct towards the 2020 average of 120, as current market conditions do not support sustained high ratios [43].