创新药要不要止盈？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant divergence between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, highlighting the recent drop in the AH premium index, which has reached a five-year low, indicating potential investment strategies based on historical patterns of market behavior [1][3][4]. Group 1: AH Premium Index - The AH premium index, which measures the price ratio of A-shares to H-shares for companies listed on both exchanges, has fallen below 130, marking the lowest point since June 2020 [1][3]. - Historically, when the AH premium index drops below 130, it has often been followed by a sharp rebound, suggesting that this threshold can serve as a quantitative trading factor for investors [3][4]. - The frequency of the AH premium index dropping below 130 has increased, indicating a downward shift in its central tendency, which may suggest a new normal for the index [4][5]. Group 2: Market Trends and Predictions - Since February 2024, the market has experienced a prolonged downtrend, influenced by unprecedented interest rate declines and policy adjustments affecting institutional investments in Hong Kong stocks [5][6]. - Short-term adjustments in the Hong Kong market are anticipated due to the AH premium index falling below 130, with recent net selling by southbound funds in major internet companies indicating market pressure [6]. - In the medium to long term, the low interest rate environment may continue to push the AH premium index lower, establishing a new norm where the index remains below 130 for an extended period [6]. Group 3: Biopharmaceutical Sector - Despite the overall decline in the Hong Kong market, the biopharmaceutical sector has shown strong performance, with the Hang Seng Medical ETF rising over 50% year-to-date [8][10]. - The introduction of the 18A policy by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2018 has allowed unprofitable biotech companies to list, leading to a supply advantage for innovative drug companies in Hong Kong compared to A-shares [10]. - Investors are advised to consider both long-term asset allocation in high-growth sectors and short-term trading strategies in the volatile biopharmaceutical market [12][14].