稀土这张牌，中国还能打多久

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic importance of rare earth elements in the context of US-China relations, emphasizing that China's control over rare earth resources gives it significant leverage in negotiations with the US and Europe [1][2][10]. Historical Background and Policy Evolution - Rare earth elements, despite being labeled "rare," are not particularly scarce in the Earth's crust, with some like cerium being as abundant as copper [2]. - China dominated the global rare earth market in the late 20th century, capturing about 97% of the market share through low-cost exports, which led to environmental issues [2][3]. - Since 1998, China has gradually tightened control over rare earth exports through quota systems to stabilize prices and reduce environmental damage [2][3]. Current Control Mechanism - China's rare earth industry is strictly regulated through a quota system, which is adjusted annually based on global demand to maintain supply-demand balance and price stability [5]. - The state-owned enterprises, China Rare Earth (Southern) and Northern Rare Earth, control the entire production chain from mining to final product [5]. Export Restrictions and Strategic Impact - Starting April 2024, China will implement a licensing system for the export of seven heavy rare earth elements, which are crucial for both civilian and military applications [6]. - The approval process for export licenses takes about 45 working days, causing potential production disruptions for overseas manufacturers [6][10]. - China allows the export of finished products containing rare earth magnets, providing a workaround for foreign manufacturers to access rare earth materials indirectly [6]. Challenges in Replacing Chinese Supply - Despite the abundance of rare earth elements, the extraction and processing are environmentally challenging, leading many countries to avoid developing their resources [8][9]. - New mining projects typically take 3 to 5 years to develop, with significant delays in regions with strict environmental regulations [8]. - China currently holds a 90% market share in rare earth magnets, making it difficult for other countries to compete due to technological and scale disadvantages [9]. Long-term Strategic Implications - China's control over rare earth resources provides it with a strong geopolitical leverage, but this leverage may diminish over time as other countries invest in alternative supply chains [10][11]. - The ongoing supply chain disruptions have significantly impacted industries reliant on rare earth elements, highlighting their critical role in modern technology [11]. - The article contrasts China's strategic management of rare earth resources with the US's challenges in regulating high-end chip exports, suggesting that China's approach may offer more effective control [11].