年中展望 | 美国“例外论”的终结（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in global macroeconomic narratives from "American exceptionalism" to "American denialism," driven by factors such as tariff impacts, inflation expectations, and the implementation of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" [2][8]. Group 1: Narrative Shift - The global macroeconomic narrative has transitioned from "American exceptionalism" to "American denialism" in the first half of 2025, influenced by tariff disruptions and economic uncertainties [3][4]. - In early 2025, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI remained above the neutral level of 50 for three consecutive months, indicating resilience in industrial production, but fell below 50 in April [2][8]. - The IMF revised its global GDP growth forecast for 2025 down to 2.8%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from January, with the U.S. forecast lowered from 2.7% to 1.8% [2][23]. Group 2: Economic Impact of Tariffs and Legislation - The average tariff rate in the U.S. rose significantly from 2.4% at the end of 2024 to around 16% by May 2025, marking the highest level since World War II [4][54]. - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" primarily extends existing tax cuts, which may have limited economic stimulation effects, while increasing long-term debt supply pressure due to higher deficits [4][84]. - The judicial challenges to tariffs may disrupt trade negotiations, with significant uncertainty surrounding the outcomes and potential tariff adjustments [61][62]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Inflation - The article highlights a potential paradigm shift where U.S. dollar-denominated assets may no longer be viewed as "safe assets," with inflationary pressures expected to rise alongside economic slowdown risks [5][6]. - Inflation is anticipated to rebound, with Bloomberg consensus predicting PCE inflation to peak at 3.1% and core PCE at 3.3% by the end of 2025 [5][71]. - The article notes that the inflation effects of tariffs have begun to manifest, with retail prices showing significant increases following tariff implementations [70][71].