夜来风雨声，“价”落知多少:申万期货早间评论-20250613

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various economic indicators and geopolitical events impacting market sentiment, highlighting potential investment opportunities and risks in different sectors. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US Producer Price Index (PPI) and core PPI both showed a mild month-on-month increase of 0.1% in May, which is below expectations, with core PPI growth reaching a near one-year low, raising expectations for two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1] - The financing balance in China increased by 1.82 billion yuan to 1.8066 trillion yuan on June 11, indicating a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments in the stock market [2][7] - The US initial jobless claims slightly exceeded expectations, with continuing claims soaring to the highest level since the end of 2021, indicating potential economic weakness [1] Group 2: Commodity Insights - In the oilseed market, the EIA forecasts a significant decline in US biodiesel and renewable diesel imports due to tax credit policy adjustments, which may support a slight increase in US soybean oil prices [3] - The May production of Malaysian palm oil reached 1.77 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.05%, while exports rose by 25.62% to 1.3872 million tons, indicating a robust supply-demand dynamic [3] - Copper prices are under pressure due to low smelting fees and weak demand from the real estate sector, with domestic demand remaining stable in the power and automotive industries [3][15] Group 3: Geopolitical Events - Israel's Defense Minister warned of potential missile and drone attacks against Israel following its strikes on Iran, which could escalate regional tensions and impact market stability [4] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced an anti-dumping investigation into imported pork and pork products from the EU, extending the investigation period to December 16, 2025, reflecting ongoing trade tensions [5] Group 4: Market Performance - The US stock indices experienced slight fluctuations, with the overall market showing a bullish trend, supported by the principle agreement framework reached between China and the US [2][7] - The night trading session for oilseeds showed a strong performance, while copper prices declined, reflecting mixed market sentiments across different commodities [3][15]