Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the decline in China's liquor production is often misinterpreted, suggesting that while production has decreased from its peak in 2016, it has actually increased by 33.02% compared to 20 years ago, indicating that the industry is not necessarily in decline but rather adjusting to market realities [2][4]. Production Trends - In 2016, China's liquor production peaked at 1,358 million tons, but by 2024, it is projected to drop to 414.5 million tons, a decline of approximately 69.48% [2]. - When comparing the production in 2024 (414.5 million tons) to 20 years prior in 2004 (311.6 million tons), it shows a growth of 33.02%, contradicting the narrative of a declining industry [2][3]. Demand and Consumption - The article highlights that the demand for liquor is limited by human consumption capacity, unlike other beverages that can see increased consumption with lifestyle changes [3]. - The population growth from 1.299 billion in 2004 to 1.408 billion in 2024 (an increase of about 8.4%) indicates that per capita liquor consumption has not significantly decreased [2]. Market Dynamics - The rapid increase in liquor production from 2004 to 2016 was driven by a favorable economic environment post-WTO accession, leading to a proliferation of local liquor brands [4]. - The oversupply and intense competition in the market have led to a decline in production since 2016, with many mid to low-end brands losing market share [4]. Revenue Growth - Despite the decline in production, the total sales revenue of the liquor industry has surged from 61.23 billion in 2004 to 796.384 billion in 2024, a twelvefold increase [4][5]. - The increase in revenue is attributed to rising prices rather than increased consumption, with the sales revenue continuing to grow even as production declines [5]. Monetary Influence - The growth in liquor sales revenue aligns closely with the increase in the money supply (M2), which rose from 25.32 trillion in 2004 to 313.53 trillion in 2024, an increase of 11.38 times [5]. - The article posits that the driving force behind the liquor industry's growth is not public spending or real estate demand, but rather the effects of monetary expansion [5].
复盘白酒行业,真的是不断在萎缩吗
雪球·2025-06-13 06:15