中金2025下半年展望 | 新能源车中游：基本面逐步进入改善通道，锂电新技术迎产业化向上拐点

Core Viewpoint - The overall price stability in the industry chain is expected in 2H25, with potential price elasticity in certain segments, supported by high operating rates of leading companies and benefits from new product premiums, indicating a recovery in fundamentals [1][3]. Demand - The demand for new energy vehicles (NEVs) is anticipated to maintain high growth in China due to the old-for-new policy and the expected decline in purchase tax in 2026, while the European market is expected to recover due to carbon policies and subsidies [3][6]. - In the first four months of 2025, China's NEV wholesale sales increased by 46% year-on-year, with exports also showing strong growth, benefiting from the recognition of Chinese brands in overseas markets [7][9]. - The commercial vehicle sector in Europe is experiencing strong growth, with a 47% year-on-year increase in NEV commercial vehicle sales in the first four months of 2025, driven by various subsidies [16]. Industry Chain - After significant price declines in 2023-2024, the industry chain prices are entering a bottoming phase, with certain segments like 6F, copper foil, and iron lithium cathodes showing signs of price stabilization [3][26]. - The supply-demand structure is improving, with leading manufacturers maintaining high operating rates, indicating a potential recovery in their fundamentals [28][31]. New Technologies - The solid-state battery technology is expected to see accelerated industrialization in 2H25, driven by demand from NEVs, eVTOLs, and robotics, with significant advancements in testing and pilot production [4][45]. - The second-generation semi-solid batteries are entering a critical phase for commercialization, with various companies making progress in production and application [47][48]. Global Manufacturing Layout - The lithium battery industry chain is accelerating its global manufacturing layout, particularly in Europe and Southeast Asia, with expected production capacity coming online from late 2H25 to 2026 [41][44]. - The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is promoting domestic production of batteries and components, which is expected to enhance local supply capabilities and reduce reliance on foreign products [42][43].