野村东方国际证券成功举办2025中期策略会

Core Viewpoint - The mid-term strategy meeting by Nomura Orient International Securities emphasizes the theme of "seeking certainty amid geopolitical games," focusing on how to navigate uncertainties and capitalize on industry and asset certainties in the current market environment [2]. Group 1: Market Environment - The euro, which accounts for over 60% of the dollar index, has appreciated against the dollar since March, indicating a trend of capital withdrawal from dollar assets [2]. - Non-dollar assets have received strong liquidity support in the first half of the year, with international capital favoring European bonds, European stocks, and the Hang Seng Technology Index [2]. - The market has priced in most potential changes, including consistent expectations for the U.S. economy and shifts in international capital flows [2]. Group 2: Future Market Outlook - The second half of 2025 is expected to be a critical juncture for market direction, with discrepancies between expectations and reality likely to converge as high-frequency data is validated monthly [3]. - The loosening and shifting of international capital narratives may lead to additional liquidity impacts, potentially increasing market volatility [3]. - Given strong domestic policy expectations and a favorable liquidity environment under a weak dollar, Chinese equity assets are anticipated to outperform overseas markets in the latter half of the year [3]. Group 3: Sector and Stock Performance - The projected revenue growth rates for the CSI 300 Index are 4.5% and 5.3% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profit growth rates of 2.8% and 6.7% [3]. - The decline in risk-free interest rates suggests that the CSI 300 is still undervalued from a static valuation perspective, making it attractive for long-term domestic investors [3]. - Dividend stocks with stable yields and specific technology growth sectors (military, new energy, and new consumption) are expected to be more suitable for the market environment in the second half of the year [3].