大兼并时代：中国汽车产业内卷终局推演

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impending wave of mergers and acquisitions in the Chinese automotive industry as a necessary response to the current "scale inefficiency" faced by companies, driven by intense competition and market dynamics [3][18]. Group 1: Current Industry Challenges - The Chinese automotive industry is experiencing a "scale inefficiency" where despite record sales exceeding 30 million units and a growth rate nearing a decade high, the asset turnover ratios have not improved, indicating underlying financial issues [7][10]. - The average gross margin for A-share listed manufacturers reached 15.6% in 2024, the highest in nearly a decade, yet the overall asset turnover rate has declined, suggesting that profits are not translating into efficient asset utilization [8][10]. - The phenomenon of "scale inefficiency" is attributed to excessive capital expenditure without corresponding demand, leading to asset depreciation and underutilization [15][17]. Group 2: Future Outlook and Mergers - The article posits that the automotive industry's current "scale inefficiency" will likely lead to a restructuring of asset scales, with companies needing to either align their profit and asset statements or face further economic challenges [19][20]. - Historical examples from Europe and Japan illustrate how mergers and acquisitions can effectively address redundancy and improve asset value, suggesting that the Chinese automotive industry is on the brink of a similar transformation [22]. - The economic depreciation rate for the automotive industry is projected to be 0.335 in 2024, indicating that the conditions for a merger wave are present, as companies with lower depreciation rates can offer higher premiums in acquisitions [25][26].