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Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in Kweichow Moutai's stock price has raised concerns, with a drop of nearly 13% from its peak of 1645 CNY per share to 1427 CNY, significantly underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [1][3][4] Group 1: Stock Performance - Kweichow Moutai's stock has been in a weak downward trend for over four years since reaching a historical high of 2400 CNY in early 2021, with a decline of more than 40% from that peak [3][4] - The overall performance of the liquor sector has been poor, with Kweichow Moutai and other leading liquor companies experiencing significant declines in stock prices, with Moutai down 12.56% over the past 20 trading days [10][11] Group 2: Policy Impact - A new regulation effective from May 18, 2025, prohibits the serving of liquor at official meals for civil servants, which has drastically changed market expectations for future liquor consumption [6][7] - Despite a reduced reliance on government consumption, the loss of this segment is expected to impact broader business and social dining scenarios [8][9] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The liquor industry is facing a contraction in consumption scenarios, exacerbated by the new regulations, leading to a significant drop in wholesale sales [10][12] - Kweichow Moutai's wholesale prices have been declining, with the price for a case dropping to 2025 CNY and for individual bottles to 1960 CNY, marking a decline of over 12% compared to earlier this year [14][16] Group 4: Inventory and Supply - Current inventory levels for Kweichow Moutai are substantial, with approximately 120 million bottles in circulation and production capacity expected to add another 130 million bottles, indicating a potential oversupply [17] - Reports indicate that the liquor wholesale price index has been below 100 since last year, with a 12.5% year-on-year decline in production as of March [18][20] Group 5: Consumer Trends - The younger generation shows a declining interest in traditional liquor, with only 13% of young consumers preferring liquor over other beverages, leading to a significant generational gap in consumption [26][30] - New consumption trends favor lighter beverages and experiences, with younger consumers increasingly gravitating towards products that align with their lifestyle preferences [28][29] Group 6: Industry Evolution - The liquor industry has matured over the past two decades, transitioning through various phases, and is now characterized by a strong competitive landscape [24][25] - Despite attempts by liquor companies to innovate and adapt, such as Kweichow Moutai's forays into cross-industry products, these efforts have not gained significant traction [31][32]