光大证券研究·2025-06-13 13:29Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong demand for AI chips and the growth of the North American AI sector, while also noting the weak recovery in non-AI chip applications [3][4]. Group 1: AI Sector Insights - AI inference demand is experiencing explosive growth, with Nvidia reporting a significant increase in token processing by Microsoft, which handled over 100 trillion tokens in FY25Q3, a fivefold year-on-year increase [3]. - Sovereign AI demand is emerging, exemplified by a $15 billion collaboration agreement between Nvidia, AMD, and Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund [3]. - Nvidia's supply capabilities have improved significantly, with major customers deploying nearly 1,000 GB200 NVL72 racks weekly, and production of the GB300 expected to ramp up by the end of FY26Q2 [3]. - ASIC deployments are projected to increase significantly in 2026, with Broadcom indicating that three major clients will deploy 1 million AI accelerator chip clusters by 2027 [3]. Group 2: Non-AI Sector Insights - Global wafer fab utilization rates are low, projected between 60% and 70% in 2024, below the healthy range of 80% to 90% [4]. - IDC has revised down its 2025 global smartphone shipment growth forecast from 2.6% to 0.6% due to economic uncertainties and reduced consumer spending [4]. - PC shipments are underperforming, with GPU shipments down 1.6% year-on-year and CPU shipments down 0.3% year-on-year in Q1 2025 [4]. Group 3: Storage Market Trends - The storage market has begun to recover since late March 2025, with price increases for several DDR3 and DDR4 products due to production halts by major manufacturers [5]. - Downstream demand is showing signs of substantial growth as inventory digestion is nearly complete, with expectations of price increases for DRAM and NAND Flash products in Q3 2025 [5].