Bank of America(US:BAC) 券商中国·2025-06-14 02:27Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the escalating geopolitical uncertainties, particularly in the Middle East, which have triggered significant volatility in global financial markets, leading to a risk-averse behavior among investors [1][2][3]. Market Reactions - European stock markets experienced a widespread decline, with major indices in France, Germany, Spain, and Italy all dropping over 1% [6]. - The US stock market also faced substantial losses, with the Dow Jones falling by 1.79%, the Nasdaq by 1.3%, and the S&P 500 by 1.13% [7]. - A notable surge in the VIX index, which rose by 15.65% to 20.84, indicates increased market fear, with a weekly increase of 24.27% [7]. Fund Flows - Recent data from Bank of America shows that US stock funds experienced the largest outflow in nearly three months, with redemptions reaching approximately $9.8 billion (over 70 billion RMB), marking an 11-week high [5]. - European funds, which had previously outperformed US stocks, also saw a net outflow of $600 million, the first in nine weeks [5]. Investor Sentiment - Analysts suggest that current market behavior aligns with a "risk-averse" mode, indicating that this may be just the beginning of a broader market trend [3][9]. - Investors are closely monitoring developments in the Middle East, the US economic outlook, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory [8]. Economic Outlook - Former US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen predicts that Trump's tariff policies will lead to an increase in inflation, estimating this year's inflation rate to be at least 3% [4][18]. - Yellen also warns that these tariffs could reduce average household income by approximately $1,000, depending on the progress of the tariff plans [19]. Federal Reserve Policy - Yellen anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current stance and not make significant changes to monetary policy in the near term, as they are likely to wait for clearer inflation trends [20][21]. - Analysts from Allianz have adjusted their expectations for a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve from October to December, citing that inflation is expected to peak in the fourth quarter [20].