Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for long-term investors to deeply interpret the reshaping of the global order and assess the cost-effectiveness of various assets, particularly in light of the underestimation of U.S. recession risks in global asset pricing [3][20][46]. Group 1: Introduction - The beginning of the year has seen two key variables (Deepseek and equivalent tariffs) that reinforce the underlying logic of a new investment paradigm, characterized by increasing de-globalization, trends in AI industries, and debt cycles [3][10]. - The global risk premium has risen, potentially amplifying asymmetric pricing risks, with current global risk assets having largely recovered to levels prior to the imposition of equivalent tariffs [3][20]. Group 2: U.S. Recession Trading - Historical data shows that U.S. recession trading often begins 1-6 months before the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) officially declares a recession [4][47]. - Typical characteristics during U.S. recession trading include declines in U.S. stocks and industrial metals, falling 10-year Treasury yields, widening U.S. credit spreads, and defensive stocks outperforming cyclical stocks [4][47]. Group 3: Volatility During Recession Trading - During past U.S. recession trading phases, asset volatility has increased, with risk assets experiencing greater volatility than safe-haven assets [5][65]. - The volatility amplification factors for risk assets (e.g., Nasdaq, Hang Seng Index) are higher than those for safe-haven assets (e.g., gold, U.S. Treasuries) [5][65]. Group 4: All-Weather Strategy Model - The article discusses how to adjust the all-weather strategy model to correct the underestimation of U.S. recession risks in asset pricing [6][73]. - The model suggests that the risk parity principle should be applied based on the adjusted volatility of various assets, leading to changes in asset allocation [6][73]. - The revised model indicates an increase in allocation for Chinese convertible bonds and A-share dividends, while reducing allocations for Nasdaq and Indian SENSEX30 [6][73]. Group 5: Asymmetric Pricing Risks - The current global investment landscape shows a significant underpricing of U.S. recession risks, which presents an opportunity for asymmetric trading strategies [20][46]. - The article highlights the importance of adjusting asset allocations to account for the potential impact of U.S. recession risks on various asset classes [20][46].
【广发资产研究】全球杠铃策略如何应对美国衰退风险?—债务周期下的资产配置新策略系列(七)
戴康的策略世界·2025-06-14 06:54