Tesla(US:TSLA) 芯世相·2025-06-13 10:30Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future potential of humanoid robots, particularly focusing on Tesla's efforts in this field, highlighting both the technological challenges and market expectations surrounding humanoid robots [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since Tesla showcased its humanoid robot in October 2022, the A-share robot concept sector has surged by 93%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index only increased by about 1% [2]. - Global investors and suppliers have invested over 100 billion yuan in humanoid robots since Tesla's announcement, indicating strong market interest and speculation [3]. - The global humanoid robot industry is expected to ship nearly 20,000 units this year, which is comparable to the weekly production of Rolex watches [4]. Group 2: Technological Challenges - Humanoid robots currently rely on approximately 30 actuators to perform movements, which is significantly less complex than the human body that utilizes over 600 muscles [7]. - The use of planetary roller screws in Tesla's robots allows for greater load capacity and precision, essential for humanoid functionality [12]. - The current humanoid robots cannot walk quietly, and many companies are exploring various solutions to improve their locomotion capabilities [15]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Production - Tesla has engaged hundreds of global suppliers to develop specific components for humanoid robots, with many companies realizing the unusual nature of these orders only after the robot's public debut [22][23]. - The supply chain for humanoid robots has evolved significantly, with companies like Sanhua Intelligent Control and Top Group benefiting from their partnerships with Tesla [23]. - The production of Tesla's humanoid robots is currently focused on specific tasks within the factory, such as moving battery packs, which raises questions about the broader application of these robots [46]. Group 4: Cost and Economic Viability - The estimated cost of Tesla's latest humanoid robot is around $60,000, which is significantly higher than the target of $20,000 to $30,000 set by Elon Musk [27]. - The operational cost of a humanoid robot is comparable to the salary of a human worker, making it economically challenging to replace human labor in many scenarios [46]. - The lifespan of critical components in humanoid robots is limited, leading to high maintenance costs that could offset initial savings from automation [31]. Group 5: Future Prospects - The humanoid robot industry is exploring AI and software solutions to enhance hardware capabilities, with hopes of achieving greater efficiency and functionality [32][39]. - Companies are investing in developing models that can learn and adapt to various tasks, similar to advancements seen in AI language models [38]. - Despite the optimism in the market, the practical applications of humanoid robots remain limited, with many companies still facing significant technological hurdles [45].