如果美国“资本税”落地，高盛预计央行还会买更多黄金

Core Viewpoint - The demand for gold is likely to increase further, contingent on the implementation of the "Section 899" tax provision, which may lead central banks to reduce their holdings in U.S. Treasury securities and increase their investments in gold and other non-dollar assets [1]. Group 1: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Global central banks and official institutions (excluding the U.S.) purchased 68 tons of gold in April through the London OTC market, significantly higher than the pre-pandemic average of 17 tons per month in 2022 [1]. - The average monthly gold purchases by central banks so far this year have reached 88 tons, slightly exceeding Goldman Sachs' previous forecast of 80 tons per month by mid-2026 [1]. Group 2: Section 899 Tax Provision - The "Section 899" tax provision is currently under review by the U.S. Congress, with ambiguous language regarding whether interest earned by foreign central banks on U.S. Treasury holdings will be subject to withholding tax [1]. - If implemented, this provision could diminish the attractiveness of U.S. Treasury securities for foreign central banks, prompting them to increase their gold holdings [1]. - However, Goldman Sachs economists believe that the likelihood of this tax reform being canceled or postponed is high, as the Senate may reject it, or central banks may be exempted or have the implementation delayed until 2027 [1]. Group 3: Gold Price Forecast - Goldman Sachs reaffirms a bullish stance on gold trading, predicting that strong central bank purchases will drive gold prices to $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2022 and further to $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 [1].