冲突持续升级，影响多大？

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing tensions in the Middle East have led to immediate impacts on capital markets, with a surge in global risk aversion and significant increases in oil and energy stocks [1][5][17]. Market Impact - Global stock markets experienced declines on June 13, with major indices falling, except for the Russian RTS index which saw a slight increase [1][3]. - In the Asia-Pacific region, the A-share Shanghai Composite Index and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index had smaller declines compared to Japan's Nikkei 225 and South Korea's KOSPI [1]. - European markets showed mixed results, with the UK FTSE 100 down less than 0.5%, while France's CAC40 and Germany's DAX fell over 1% [1][3]. - In the Americas, the three major US indices saw significant drops, with the Dow Jones down 1.79% and both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 down over 1% [1][3]. Oil and Energy Sector Performance - International oil prices surged over 10% during the day, with NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent crude both exceeding $70 per barrel [5]. - Energy stocks in the US saw dramatic increases, with Houston energy stocks rising over 176% at one point, closing with a 119.19% increase [7]. - Major US energy companies also reported significant gains, with Halliburton up over 5%, Occidental Petroleum up over 3%, and ExxonMobil, Devon Energy, and ConocoPhillips all rising over 2% [7]. Oil Production and Export Projections - Current oil production in the Middle East shows Saudi Arabia leading with 9.07 million barrels per day, followed by Iran at 4.27 million barrels, while Israel and Turkey produce less than 200,000 barrels combined [9]. - Analysts estimate Iran's oil exports could reach 1.7 to 1.8 million barrels per day by 2025, potentially impacting around 4% of global oil exports [11]. - JPMorgan warns that a larger conflict in the Middle East could disrupt Iran's exports of 2.1 million barrels per day, leading to severe supply chaos in the oil market [11]. Historical Context and Price Trends - Historical data indicates that conflicts in the Middle East typically cause sharp short-term disruptions in oil supply, with long-term effects stabilizing over time [13][15]. - The oil price response to geopolitical tensions has historically shown a pattern of sharp increases followed by corrections, influenced by changes in supply and demand dynamics [15][17].