M1增速缘何回升？——5月金融数据点评（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of new policy financial tools may stabilize credit performance, with M1 growth rebounding in May due to low base effects from last year's "funds anti-evaporation" policy and marginal recovery in real estate sales [1][2][4] Financial Data Summary - In May, M1 year-on-year growth increased by 0.8 percentage points to 2.3%, driven by a rapid decline in corporate demand deposits and a narrowing drop in commodity housing transactions [1][2][12] - Credit performance remains weak, primarily due to the corporate sector, with medium to long-term loans decreasing by over 150 billion yuan for two consecutive months, influenced by an expanded year-on-year decline in PPI [8][11] - The new social financing scale increased by 22.87 billion yuan year-on-year, mainly due to government bond issuance, while the net financing of government bonds remained high but saw a year-on-year increase narrowing to 236.7 billion yuan [9][12] Loan and Deposit Trends - In May, new loans totaled 620 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 330 billion yuan, with the decline primarily from corporate medium to long-term loans [11][12] - The structure of deposits showed an increase in household deposits by 470 billion yuan year-on-year, while corporate deposits decreased by 417.6 billion yuan [15]