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国金高频图鉴 | 地产销售再降温&车企价格战延续
雪涛宏观笔记·2025-06-15 11:40

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the effects of previous policies are gradually diminishing, leading to a noticeable decline in real estate sales in China [2] - In the first week of June, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 20.6 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 17.2%, with significant declines in first- and second-tier cities [2] - The average daily sales area of second-hand houses in 11 sample cities was 19.0 million square meters, down from 25.6 million square meters, although the transaction share of second-hand houses has rebounded [2] Group 2 - Domestic price pressures continue, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in May showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, primarily influenced by falling energy prices [3][4] - Energy prices fell by 1.7% month-on-month in May, with gasoline prices decreasing by 3.8% [3] - Agricultural product prices remained stable with a slight decline, with month-on-month decreases ranging from 0.3% to 1.0% [5] Group 3 - In May, automobile retail sales increased by 13% year-on-year and 10% month-on-month, while wholesale sales rose by 14% year-on-year and 6% month-on-month, indicating resilience in the automotive market [9] - The retail sales of new energy vehicles saw a remarkable year-on-year growth of 30% and a month-on-month growth of 14%, with a market penetration rate of 53.5% [10] - Despite maintaining sales resilience, automobile prices showed weakness, with an overall market discount rate of approximately 24.8% in May, up from 23.7% in April [10] Group 4 - The funding chain for construction projects has shown improvement, with the funding availability rate for sample construction sites reaching 59.13% as of June 3, marking a week-on-week increase of 0.26 percentage points [11][14] - Non-residential construction projects saw an increase of 0.53 percentage points, while residential construction projects experienced a decrease of 0.95 percentage points [14] - The improvement in funding availability aligns with some upstream production data, such as a cement clinker capacity utilization rate of 61.0% and an increase in the operating rate of asphalt plants to 31.3% [14]