木头姐旗下的方舟投资预测，SpaceX市值有望达2.5万亿美元

Core Viewpoint - Ark Invest believes that SpaceX will ultimately strive to achieve Elon Musk's goal of colonizing Mars, but before that, completing the Starlink satellite internet network will drive SpaceX's valuation to $2.5 trillion by the end of this decade [1][2]. Group 1: SpaceX Valuation and Financial Projections - SpaceX's enterprise value, which includes both equity and debt, suggests an annualized return rate of 38% from its December financing round of $350 billion [1]. - Ark Invest's valuation model indicates that SpaceX's annual revenue could reach approximately $300 billion by deploying 42,000 satellites, capturing 15% of the global expected communication spending [3]. - The report highlights that SpaceX's Starlink satellite constellation is expected to be completed by around 2035 [3]. Group 2: Mars Colonization and Future Prospects - Ark Invest acknowledges the speculative nature of predicting cash flows based on extraterrestrial settlements but believes that Mars-related business will significantly impact SpaceX's valuation by the late 2030s [7]. - The company emphasizes that Musk's ambitious goals for Mars colonization will require substantial funding, with SpaceX heavily reliant on government contracts, having received over $20 billion from the U.S. government in the past 15 years [7]. - The report suggests that before the completion of the Starlink constellation, funds will gradually shift towards Mars development [4]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Market Performance - Investors in Ark Venture Fund are optimistic about Musk's ability to refocus on space endeavors, especially after recent political controversies [2][8]. - The fund's stock has increased nearly 20% over the past 12 months, outperforming the S&P 500 index, which returned 12.5% [8]. - SpaceX constitutes over 13% of the Ark Venture Fund's portfolio, making it the largest holding, followed by Neuralink and xAI [9].