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周一,开盘必读!
格兰投研·2025-06-15 15:03

Macro Analysis - The recent conflict between Israel and Iran is a significant concern, with Israel's airstrikes aimed at destroying Iran's nuclear capabilities and potentially altering the Middle Eastern order [3][4]. - Israel, the only nuclear-armed state in the region, feels threatened by Iran's nuclear ambitions, which Iran claims are for peaceful purposes [5][6]. - The International Atomic Energy Agency has reported that Iran has deployed advanced centrifuges, indicating a potential secretive nuclear weapons program [6]. Investment Perspective - The current conflict is unlikely to escalate to the severity of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as Iran lacks strong leverage due to its domestic economic and military limitations [10]. - The conflict is viewed as a temporary disturbance rather than a fundamental shift in market trends, suggesting that investors should not panic [11][12]. - The recent market downturn presents potential buying opportunities, as the market is expected to stabilize rather than experience significant declines [13]. Market Trends - The recent market rally has shown similarities in both space and time dimensions across two distinct phases of growth, with the second phase exhibiting broader sector rotation [14]. - The second phase of the market rally has seen a higher proportion of sectors yielding excess returns, with over 60% compared to 45.2% in the first phase [15]. - Sectors such as new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals are currently at high valuation levels, indicating potential profit-taking and a shift in focus to undervalued sectors like media and gaming [16][18]. Sector Analysis - The new consumption sector has shown signs of reaching a peak, with a noticeable decline in trading volume, suggesting a potential shift in investor interest [18]. - The innovative pharmaceuticals sector, while supported by fundamentals, is experiencing a shift from core stocks to broader participation, indicating a possible short-term peak [18]. - Continued focus on technology sectors, particularly AI and solid-state batteries, is recommended for future investment opportunities [18].